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单选题AMERICA'S central bank sent a clear message this week. For the second consecutive meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank's policy-making committee, left short term interest rates unchanged at 1.75%. But it said that the risks facing the economy had shifted from economic weakness to a balance between weakness and excessive growth. This shift surprised no one. But it has convinced many people that interest rates are set to rise again--and soon. Judging by prices in futures markets, investors are betting that short-term interest rates could start rising as early as May, and will be 1.25 percentage points higher by the end of the year. That may be excessive. Economists at Goldman Sachs, who long argued that the central bank would do nothing this year, now expect short-term rates to go up only 0.75% this year, starting in June. But virtually everyone reckons some Fed tightening is in the offing. The reason? After an unprecedented 11 rate-cuts in 2001, short term interest rates are abnormally low. As the signs of robust recovery multiply, analysts expect the Fed to take back some of the rate-cuts it used as an "insurance policy" after the September 11th terrorist attack. They think there will be a gradual move from the Fed's current "accommodative" monetary stance to a more neutral policy. And a neutral policy, many argue, ultimately implies short term interest rates of around 4 %. Logical enough. But higher rates could still be further off, particularly if the recovery proves less robust than many hope. Certainly, recent economic indicators have been extraordinarily strong: unemployment fell for the second consecutive month in February and industrial production rose in both January and February. The manufacturing sector is growing after 18 months of decline. The most optimistic Wall Streeters now expect GDP to have expanded by between 5% and 6% on an annual basis in the first quarter. But one strong quarter does not imply a sustainable recovery. In the short term, the bounce-back is being driven by a dramatic restocking of inventories. But it can be sustained only if corporate investment recovers and consumer spending stays buoyant. With plenty of slack capacity around and many firms stuck with huge debts and lousy profits, it is hard to see where surging investment will come from. And, despite falling unemployment, America's consumers could disappoint the bulls. These uncertainties alone suggest the central bank will be cautious about raising interest rates. Indeed, given the huge pressure on corporate profits, the Federal Reserve might be happy to see consumer prices rise slightly. In short, while Wall Street frets about when and how much interest rates will go up. The answer may well be not soon and not much.
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单选题Most of us would like to be both (1) and creative. Why was Thomas Edison able to invent so many things? Was he simply more intelligent than most people? Did he spend long hours toiling away in private? Surprisingly, when Edison was a young boy, his teacher told him he was too (2) to learn anything. Other famous people whose creative genius went (3) when they were young include Walt Disney, who was fired from a newspaper job because he did not have any good ideas and Enrico Caruso, whose music teacher told him that his (4) was terrible. Disney, Edison and Caruso were intelligent and creative men; (5) , experts on creativity believe that intelligence is not the same as creativity. Creativity is the ability to think about something in new and unusual ways, and to (6) out unique solutions to problems. When creative people are asked what enables them to solve problems in new ways, they say that the ability to find affinities between (7) unrelated elements plays a key role. They also say that they have the time and independence in a(an) (8) setting to (9) a wide range of possible solutions to a problem. How strongly is creativity (10) to intelligence? (11) most creative people are quite intelligent, the (12) is not necessarily true. Many highly intelligent people ( (13) measured by IQ tests) are not very creative. Some experts remain skeptical that we will ever fully understand the creative process. Others believe that a psychology of creativity is within reach. Most experts agree, (14) , that the concept of creativity as (15) bubbling up from a magical (16) is a myth. Momentary (17) of insight, (18) by images, make up a (19) part of the creative process. At the heart of the creative process are ability and experience that (20) an individual's effort, often over the course of a lifetime.
单选题When Ted Kennedy gazes from the windows of his office in Boston, he can see the harbor's "Golden Stairs', where all eight of his great-grandparents first set foot in America. It reminds him, he told his Senate colleagues this week, that reforming America's immigration laws is an "awesome responsibility". Mr. Kennedy is the Democrat most prominently pushing a bipartisan bill to secure the border, ease the national skills shortage and offer a path to citizenship for the estimated 12m illegal aliens already in the country. He has a steel) climb ahead of him. As drafted, the bill seeks to mend America's broken immigration system in several ways. First, and before its other main provisions come into effect, it would tighten border security. It provides for 200 miles (320kin) of vehicle barriers, 370 miles of fencing and 18 000 new border patrol agents. It calls for an electronic identification system to ensure employers verily that all their employees are legally allowed to work. And it stiffens punishments for those who knowingly hire illegals. As soon as the bill was unveiled, it was stoned from all sides. Christans, mostly Republicans, denounced it as an "amnesty" that Would encourage further waves of illegal immigration. Tom Tancredo, a Republican congressman running for president (without hope of success) on an anti-illegal-immigration platform, demanded that all but the border-security clauses be scrapped. Even these he 'derided as "so limited it's almost a joke". Conservative talkradio echoed his call. No one is seriously proposing mass deportation, but Mr. Tancredo says the illegals will all go home if the laws against hiring them are vigorously enforced. Most labor unions are skeptical, too. The AFL-CIO denounced the guest-worker program, which it said would give employers "a ready pool of labor that they can exploit to drive down wages, benefits, health and safety protections" for everyone else. Two Demo cratic senators tried to gut the program. One failed to abolish it entirely; another succeeded in slashing it from 400 000 to 200 000 people a year. Employers like the idea of more legal migrants but worry that the new system will be cumbersome. Many object to the idea that they will have to check the immigration status of all their employees. The proposed federal computer system to sort legal from illegal workers is bound to make mistakes. Even ff only one employee in a hundred is falsely labelled illegal, that will cause a lot of headaches. And the points system has drawbacks, too. Employers are better placed than bureaucrats to judge which skills are in short supply. That is why the current mess has advantages—illegal immigrants nearly always go where their labor is in demand. Other groups have complaints, too. Immigrant-rights groups say that the path to citizenship would be too long and arduous and too few Hispanics would qualify. Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic speaker of the House, fretted that the new stress on skills would hurt families, adding that her party is "about families and family values". Some people worry that House Democrats will kill it to prevent Mr. Bush from enjoying a domestic success. Despite the indignation, public opinion favors the underlying principles. At least 60% of Americans want to give illegals a chance to become citizens if they work hard and behave.
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Since the industrial revolution,
government, society, and industry have attempted to channel technological
progress in useful directions. Whether it is the printing press, the cotton gin
the automobile or the Internet, technological innovations often have profound
economic and social effects. To harness the benefits and minimize the more
harmful effects of new technologies, modern governments use four basic
approaches: specific direction, market incentives, criminal prohibition, and
behavior modification. Specific direction starts with
governments identifying one or more key factors in the R&D phase. Then,
using a variety of means ranging from administrative regulation to outright
state ownership, the government seeks to control the implementation of the
technology. Market incentives are the deliberate manipulation of
the market by the government to control how a particularly technology is
distributed and used. For example, some governments impose taxes to cover the
hidden costs associated with the use of a particular technology. For example,
raising gasoline taxes to pay for highway improvements. Other methods include
the granting of subsidies to private researchers or the strengthening of
intellectual property laws to give added incentives to developers.
Criminal prohibition usually takes place when strong opposition exists to
a particular technology or field of research. In recent years, most developed
countries have enacted legislation to ban the cloning of human beings. Other
examples are the enforcement of clean air regulations that force power plants to
emit fewer greenhouse gasses. Finally, behavior modification
includes the use of the media, advertising, and government and corporate
leadership to encourage a particular society to use a technology in a beneficial
way. For example, while there is limited government regulation of the Internet,
websites are encouraged to install safeguards to prevent children from viewing
inappropriate material. A recent national advertising campaign recently boosted
the percentage of New York residents who recycled by almost 25%. Such campaigns
do not use direct government regulation, but instead appeal to the user's sense
of civic duty or social responsibility. Of all new technologies,
perhaps none has changed the landscape and character of American life more than
the automobile. Yet, the costs of this technology are not always reflected in
the price of Using the technology. For example, it costs an oil company $ 0.89
per gallon of gas produced. This same liter is sold to U. S. consumers at about
$1.20 per gallon. Yet while this price reflects the cost of production plus a
profit for the oil company it does not reflect the actual cost of using the
technology. For that, we must factor in the environmental costs associated with
air pollution (increased health care, environmental degradation) and the
political costs (dependence on foreign oil, energy shortages). In short, in
order to be effective, all of these strategies for channeling technology to
benefit society must incorporate all the costs associated with
usage.
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Nuclear fission is the splitting of the
nucleus of an atom. Only a few elements are suitable for use in this way, the
most important ones being Uranium-235, Uranium-233, and Plutonium-239. When a
nucleus of one of these elements is struck by a free neutron it breaks down into
two lighter nuclei which fly apart at high speed, colliding with surrounding
atoms. Their kinetic energy is converted into heat energy. At the same time, two
or three free neutrons are released and one of them enters the nucleus of a
neighbouring atom, causing fission to occur again; and so on. The reaction
spreads very quickly, with more and more heat energy released. This is called a
"chain" reaction because the splitting of each nucleus is linked to another, and
another and another. If this reaction takes place in an atomic
bomb, where nothing is done to slow it down, the result is a violent explosion
that can destroy a town in a few seconds. Fission can also, however, take place
within a construction called a nuclear reactor, or atomic pile. Here the highly
fissile material (U-235, U-233, Pu-239) is surrounded by a substance that is
non-fissile, for instance graphite. This material is called a moderator. The
neutrons lose some of their energy and speed through colliding with the atoms of
the moderator. Energy—heat energy—is still created on an enormous scale, but no
expansion takes place. The moderator has another function: by slowing down the
speed of the free neutrons, it makes it more likely that one of them will
collide with the nucleus of a neighbouring atom to continue the chain
reaction. The chief advantage of nuclear energy is that it does
not depend on any local factors. A nuclear reactor, unlike an oil-well or a
coalmine, does not have to be sited on top of a fossil-fuel source; unlike the
solar energy unit, it does not have to go out of production when the sun is not
shining; unlike hydro-electric power, it does not depend on a large flow of
water which may be reduced during some seasons of the year. With an atomic power
station, the only limiting factor is that of safety. In the
opposite process, nuclear fusion, two nuclei come together, to form a new
nucleus of a different kind and this process also releases energy on an enormous
scale. Fusion can only occur under conditions of very great heat—at least
50000000 degrees Celsius. (The temperature at the centre of the sun is estimated
as 130000000 degrees Celsius.) A fusion reaction on earth has already been
created—the hydrogen bomb. This is an uncontrolled reaction. It is not yet
possible to produce a controlled fusion reaction that can be used for the
production of useful energy. Nuclear energy can be thought of as
a kind of square, Three of the quarters of the square are known and used, but
the fourth cannot yet be used.
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单选题 People do not analyze every problem they meet.
Sometimes they try to remember a solution from the last time they had a similar
problem. They often accept the opinions or ideas of other people. Other times
they begin to act without thinking; they try to find a solution by trial and
error. However, when all these methods fail, the person with a problem has to
start analyzing. There are six stages in analyzing a problem.
First the person must recognize that there is a problem. For example, Sam' s
bicycle is broken, and he cannot ride it to class as he usually does. Sam must
see that there is a problem with his bicycle. Next the thinker
must define tile problem. Before Sam can repair his bicycle, he must find the
reason why it does not work. For instance, he must determine if the problem is
with the gears, the brakes, or the frame. He must make his problem more
specific. Now the person must look for information that will
make the problem clearer and lead to possible solutions. For in stance, suppose
Sam decided that his bike does not work because there is something wrong with
the gear wheels. At this time, he can look in his bicycle repair book and read
about gears. He can talk to his friends at the bike shop. He can look at his
gears carefully. After studying the problem, the person should
have several suggestions for a possible solution. Take Sam as
an illustration. His suggestions might be: put oil on the gear wheels; buy new
gear wheels and replace the old ones; tighten or loosen the gear
wheels. Eventually one suggestion seems to be the solution to
the problem. Sometimes the final idea comes very suddenly because the thinker
suddenly sees something new or sees something in a new way. Sam, for example,
suddenly sees that there is a piece of chewing gum between the gear wheels. He
immediately realizes the solution to his problem: he must clean the gear
wheels. Finally the solution is tested. Sam cleans the gear
wheels and finds that afterwards his bicycle works perfectly. In short, he has
solved the problem.
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