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In 1929 John D. Rockefeller decided it
was time to sell shares when even a shoe-shine boy offered him a share tip.
During the past week The Economist's economics editor has been advised by a taxi
driver, a plumber and a hairdresser that "you can't go wrong" investing in
housing-the more you own the better. Is this a sign that it is time to get out?
At the very least, as house prices around the world climb to ever loftier
heights, and more and more people jump on to the buy-to-let ladder, it is time
to expose some of the fallacies regularly trotted out by so many self-appointed
housing experts. One common error is that house prices must
continue to rise because of a limited supply of land. For instance, it is argued
that "house prices will always rise in London because lots of people want to
live here". But this confuses the level of prices with their rate of change.
Home prices are bound to be higher in big cities because of land scarcity, but
this does not guarantee that urban house prices will keep rising
indefinitely-just look at Tokyo's huge price-drops since 1990. And, though it is
true that a fixed supply of homes may push up house prices if the population is
rising, this would imply a steady rise in prices, not the 20% annual jumps of
recent years. A second flawed argument is that low interest
rates make buying a home cheaper, and so push up demand and prices. Lower
interest rates may have allowed some people, who otherwise could not have
afforded a mortgage, to buy a home. But many borrowers who think mortgages are
cheaper are suffering from money illusion. Interest rates are
not very low in real, inflation-adjusted terms. Initial interest payments may
seem low in relation to income, but because inflation is also low it will not
erode the real burden of debt as swiftly as it once did. So in later years
mortgage payments will be much larger in real terms. To argue that low nominal
interest rates make buying a home cheaper is like arguing that a car loan paid
off over four years is cheaper than one repaid over two years.
Fallacy number three is a favourite claim of Alan Greenspan, chairman of
America's Federal Reserve. This is that price bubbles are less likely in housing
than in the stockmarket because higher transaction costs discourage speculation.
In fact, several studies have shown that both in theory and in practice bubbles
are more likely in housing than in shares. A study by the IMF finds that a sharp
rise in house prices is far more likely to be followed by a bust than is a
share-price boom.
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单选题{{B}}Text 3{{/B}}
Some oil companies plan to get rid of
some of the pollution they produce by pumping it into rocks deep inside the
Earth, where they say it will stay for thousands of years. Other people, though,
aren' t so sure this is advisable; environmental groups say that putting this
pollution back into the Earth is a had idea. When oil
burns, It doesn' t just produce heat: it also produces carbon dioxide. Carbon
dioxide is a natural part of the air, but because people bum so much oil, there'
s too much carbon dioxide in the air. This extra carbon dioxide is
pollution; some scientific studies show that carbon dioxide is one of the"
greenhouse gases" that is causing the Earth's temperature to rise.
Environmentalists say that the oil companies' plans may not work. The oil
companies say they are making sure that the gas will never escape, but
environmentalists wonder how the oil companies can be so sure that the gas won'
t seep into the air. They also point out that there' s no way to check to make
sure the gas isn't leaking. In addition, the environmentalists point out that
the pumping costs money—for research and for equipment--that the oil companies
should be spending on preventing pollution, rather than on just moving it
someplace else. Another problem ,say some people who are
concerned about the Earth, is that if the oil companies find a cheap way to get
rid of their pollution, they won' t look for new kinds of energy. These
environmentalists say that energy companies should be researching ways to use
hydrogen, wind power, and solar power instead of finding better ways to use oil.
They argue that continuing to use oil means that we will still need to buy oil
from other countries instead of producing our own cheap, clean energy.
Environmentalists also say that burying pollution just pushes the problem
into the future, rather than really solving it. They say that if the oil
companies pump carbon dioxide into the rocks inside the Earth, it will be there
for thousands of years, and that no one knows if this plan—even if it
works--might turn into a pollution problem for all of us in the
future. The oil companies insist that their plan is safe, and
that putting the gas inside the Earth is a reasonable way to deal with it, They
point out that there is a lot of room in the Earth for this extra gas, and that
putting carbon dioxide inside the Earth means that the gas won' t be in the air,
and if it' s not in the air, it won' t make the Earth
warmer.
单选题Hot containers of nuclear wastes to be put in Antarctic region would______
单选题We can learn from the beginning of the text that Wal-Mart Stores Inc. will
单选题In the end, a degree of sanity prevailed. The militant Hindus who had vowed to breach a police cordon and start the work of building a temple to the god Ram at the disputed site of Ayodhya decided to respect a Supreme Court decision barring them from the area. So charged have Hindu-Muslim relations in India become in recent weeks, as the declared deadline of March 15th neared, that a clash at Ram's supposed birthplace might well have provoked bloodshed on an appalling scale across the nation. It has, unfortunately, happened often enough before. But the threat has not vanished. The court's decision is only an interim one, and the main Hindu groups have not given up on their quest to build their temple. Extreme religious violence, which seemed in recent years to have faded after the Ayodhya-related explosion of 1992--1993, is again a feature of the political landscape. Though faults lie on both sides (it was a Muslim attack on Hindus in a train in Gujarat that started the recent slaughter), the great bulk of victims were, as always, Muslims. Once again, educated Hindus are.to be heard inveighing against the "appeasing" of Muslims through such concessions as separate constitutional status for Kashmir or the right to practice Islamic civil law. Once again, the police are being accused of doing little or nothing to help Muslim victims of rampaging Hindu mobs. Once again, India's 130m Muslims feel unequal and unsafe in their own country. Far too many Hindus would refuse to accept that it is “their own country" at all. The wonder of it, perhaps, is that things are not worse. While the world applauds Pakistan for at last locking up the leaders of its extreme religious groups, in India the zealots still support, sustain and to a degree constitute the government. The BJP, which leads the ruling coalition, was founded as a political front for the Hindu movement. It is simply one, and by no means the dominant, member of what is called the Sangh Pariwar, the "family of organizations". Other members of the family are much less savoury. There is the VHP, the World Hindu Organization, which led the movement to build the Ram temple. There is the Bajrang Dal, the brutalist "youth wing" of the VHP. There is substantial evidence that members of the VHP and the Bajrang Dal helped to organize the slaughter of hundreds of Muslims in Gujarat after 58 Hindus were killed on a train as they returned from Ayodhya.
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单选题You slip the key into the ignition and crank the engine to life. But before you put the ear into gear, you tap a key on the keyboard mounted by the steering wheel, and your newest e-mail flashes up on the windscreen.
This seductive satyr is what you get when you cross a ear and a eomputer. Dubbed the "network vehiele", or net-mobile, it may soon come to a driveway near you ( probably the one belonging to your rich neighbor). In a net-mobile, a motorist could tap into a regional road system but also to map out a route around rush-hour traffic snags. Drivers and passengers will be able to send and receive e-mail, track the latest sports scores or stock quotes, surf the Web, and even play video games. Or so, at least, say a number of computer-industry firms such as Microsoft, Sun, IBM and Netseape.
The modern car is already
an electronic showcase on wheels
. On-board microcomputers improve fuel economy and reduce emissions. They operate anti-lock brake systems, and on some ears even regulate the firmness of the shock absorbers. But much of the technology needed to add extra is available now. A prototype network vehicle, produced by a consortium of Netseape, Sun, IBM and Delco (an automotive electronics firm based in Michigan), was introduced at the recent annual computer industry show in Las Vegas.
It not only offered such desktop-eomputer-like services as e-mail, but allowed a driver to use them without looking away from the road. It was operated by voice commands and projected its data on to the windscreen, using the same sort of head-up display system found in modern fighter jets. Members of the consortium think a real-world network vehicle could be in production in as little as four years.
Car-makers have already begun rolling out some of the features found on these prototype net mobiles. If the driver of a General Motors car equipped with its On-Star system locks his key in the car, for example, an emergency centre can transmit a digital signal to unlock the doors. On-star also calls automatically for help if an accident triggers the airbags. Toyota and General Motors are among a growing list of firms offering such in-ear navigation systems. And in Europe, BMW and Mercedes-Benz recently introduced navigation hardware that can not only plot out a route, but alert a driver to traffic jams.
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Making good coffee is not a simple
business. Coffee bushes must be grown in shade. A hillside is best--but it
mustn't be too {{U}}(1) {{/U}}. After three years, the bushes will start
to {{U}}(2) {{/U}} bright-red coffee "cherries", which are picked,
processed to {{U}}(3) {{/U}} the inner part, and spread out to dry for
days, {{U}}(4) {{/U}} on concrete. They are {{U}}(5) {{/U}}
again to separate the bean, which needs to rest, preferably for a few months.
Only then can it be roasted, ground and brewed {{U}}(6) {{/U}} the stuff
that dreams are suppressed with. In Mexico and parts of Central
America, {{U}}(7) {{/U}} in Colombia, most coffee farmers are
smallholders. They found it especially hard to {{U}}(8) {{/U}} the
recent fall in the coffee price. The {{U}}(9) {{/U}} of their income
makes it hard for farmers to invest to {{U}}(10) {{/U}} their crop, says
Fernando Celis. The fall forced many small farmers to {{U}}(11) {{/U}}
other crops, or migrate to cities. For farmers, one way out of
this {{U}}(12) {{/U}} is to separate the price they are paid
{{U}}(13) {{/U}} the international commodities markets. This is
the {{U}}(14) {{/U}} of Fair-trade, an organization which certifies
products as "responsibly" sourced. Fair-trade determines at what price farmers
make what it considers a {{U}}(15) {{/U}} profit. Its current
{{U}}(16) {{/U}} is that the appropriate figure is 10% above the market
price. {{U}} (17) {{/U}}, sales of Fair-trade-certified
coffee have increased from $ 22. 5m per year to $ 87m per year since 1998. This
is still a tiny fraction of the overall world coffee trade, worth $10 billion
{{U}}(18) {{/U}} But there are plenty of other markets for high-quality
coffee. Some small producers can {{U}}(19) {{/U}} more by marketing
their coffee as organic or "bird-friendly" because, unlike large, mechanized
plantations, they have {{U}}(20) {{/U}} shade
trees.
单选题Many will know that the word "muscle" comes from the Latin for "mouse" (rippling under the skin, so to speak ). But what about "chagrin", derived from the Turkish for roughened leather, or scaly sharkskin. Or "lens" which comes from the Latin "lentil" or "window" meaning "eye of wind" in old Norse? Looked at closely, the language comes apart in images, like those strange paintings by Giuseppe Arcimboldo where heads are made of fruit and vegetables. Not that Henry Hitchings's book is about verbal surrealism. That is an extra pleasure in a book which is really about the way the English language has roamed the world helping itself liberally to words, absorbing them, forgetting where they came from, and moving on with an ever-growing load of exotics, crossbreeds and subtly shaded near-synonyms. It is also about migrations within the language's own borders, about upward and downward mobility, about words losing their roots, turning up in new surroundings, or lying in wait, like "duvet" which was mentioned by Samuel Johnson, for their moment. All this is another way of writing history. The Arab etymologies of " saffron ", "crimson" and "sugar" speak of England's medieval trade with the Arab world. We have "cheque" and "tariff" from this source too, plus "arithmetic" and "algorithm"-just as we have "etch" and "sketch" from the Dutch, musical terms from the Italians and philosophical ones from the Germans. French nuance and finesse are everywhere. At every stage, the book is about people and ideas on the move, about invasion, refugees, immigrants, traders, colonists and explorers. This is a huge subject and one that is almost bound to provoke question-marks and explosions in the margins-soon forgotten in the book's sheer sweep and scale. A balance between straight history and word history is sometimes difficult to strike, though. There is a feeling, occasionally, of being bundled too fast through complex linguistic developments and usages, or of being given interesting slices of history for the sake, after all, of not much more than a "gong" or a "moccasin". But it is churlish to carp. The author's zest and grasp are wonderful. He makes you want to check out everything-" carp" and "zest" included. Whatever is hybrid, fluid and unpoliced about English delights him. English has never had its Acad mie Francaise, but over the centuries it has not lacked furious defenders against foreign "corruption". There have been rearguard actions to preserve its "manly" pre-Norman origins, even to reconstruct it along Anglo-Saxon lines: "wheel- saddle" for bicycle, "painlore" for pathology. But the omnivorous beast is rampant still. More people speak it as their second language than as their first. Forget the language of Shakespeare. It's "Globish" now, the language of aspiration. No one owns it, a cause for despair to some. Mr. Hitchings admits to wincing occasionally, but almost on principle he is more cheerful than not.
单选题Euthanasia has been a topic of controversy in Europe since at least 1936. On an average of six times a day, a doctor in Holland practices "active" euthanasia:
1
administering a lethal drug to a
2
ill patient who has asked to be relieved
3
suffering. Twenty times a day, life prolonging treatment is withheld or withdrawn
4
there is no hope that it can
5
an ultimate cure. "Active" euthanasia remains a crime on the Dutch statute books, punishable
6
12 years in prison. But a series of court cases over the past 15 years has made it clear that a competent physician who
7
it out will not be prosecuted.
Euthanasia, often called "mercy killing", is a crime everywhere in Western Europe.
8
more and more doctors and nurses in Britain, Germany, Holland and elsewhere readily
9
to practicing it, most often in the "passive" form of withholding or withdrawing
10
The long simmering euthanasia issue has lately
11
into a sometimes fierce public debate,
12
both sides claiming the mantle of ultimate righteousness. Those
13
to the practice see themselves
14
sacred principles of respect for life,
15
those in favor raise the banner of humane treatment. After years
16
the defensive, the advocates now seem to be
17
ground. Recent polls in Britain show that 72 percent of British
18
favor euthanasia in some circumstances. An astonishing 76 percent of
19
to a poll taken late last year in France said they would like the law changed to
20
mercy killings. Obviously, pressure groups favoring euthanasia and "assisted suicide" have grown steadily in Europe over the years.
单选题In the last paragraph, the author suggested that
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单选题For the people who have never traveled across the Atlantic the voyage is a fantasy. But for the people who cross it frequently one crossing of the Atlantic is very much like another, and they do not make the voyage for the (1) of its interest. Most of us are quite happy when we feel (2) to go to bed and pleased when the journey (3) On the first night this time I felt especially lazy and went to bed (4) earlier than usual. When I (5) my cabin, I was surprised (6) that I was to have a companion during my trip, which made me feel a little unhappy. I had expected (7) but there was a suitcase (8) mine in the opposite corner. I wondered who he could be and what he would be like. Soon afterwards he came in. He was the sort of man you might meet (9) ,except that he was wearing (10) good clothes that I made up my mind that we would not (11) whoever he was and did not say (12) .As I had expected, he did not talk to me either but went to bed immediately. I suppose I slept for several hours because when I woke up it was already the middle of the night. I felt cold but covered (13) as well as I could and tries to go back to sleep. Then I realized that a (14) was coming from the window opposite. I thought perhaps I had forgotten (15) the door, so I got up (16) the door but found it already locked from the inside. The cold air was coming from the window opposite. I crossed the room and (17) the moon shone through it on to the other bed. (18) there. It took me a minute or two to (19) the door myself. I realized that my companion (20) through the window into the sea.
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单选题Evidence from. the economists and the building industries shows that______
单选题A recent poll indicated that half the teenagers in the United States believe that communication between them and their parents is (1) and further that one of the prime causes of this gap is (2) listening behavior. As a(an) (3) in point, one parent believed that her daughter had a severe (4) problem. She was so (5) that she took her to an audiologist to have her ear tested. The audiologist carefully tested both ears and reported back to the parent:"There's nothing wrong with her hearing. She's just (6) you out. " A leading cause of the (7) divorce rate (more than half of all marriages end in divorce) is the failure of husbands and wives to (8) effectively. They don't listen to each other. Neither person (9) to the actual message sent by the other. In (10) fashion, political scientists report that a growing number of people believe that their elected and (11) officials are out of (12) with the constituents they are supposedly (13) Why? Because they don't believe that they listen to them. In fact, it seems that sometimes our politicians don't even listen to themselves. The following is a true story: At a national (14) conference held in Albuquerque some years ago, then Senator Joseph Montoya was (15) a copy of a press release by a press aide shortly before he got up before the audience to (16) a speech. When he rose to speak, (17) the horror of the press aide and the (18) of his audience, Montoya began reading the press release, not his speech. He began, "For immediate release. Senator Joseph M. Montoya, Democrat of New Mexico, last night told the National... " Montoya read the entire six page release, (19) with the statement that he "was repeatedly (20) by applause. /
单选题If you leave a loaded weapon lying around, it is bound to go off sooner or later. Snow-covered northern Europe heard the gunshot loud and clear when Russia cut supplies to Ukraine this week as part of a row about money and power, the two eternal battlegrounds of global energy. From central Europe right across to France on the Atlantic seaboard, gas supplies fell by more than one-third. For years Europeans had been telling themselves that a cold-war enemy which had supplied them without fail could still be depended on now it was an ally ( of sorts). Suddenly, nobody was quite so sure. Fearing the threat to its reputation as a supplier, Russia rapidly restored the gas and settled its differences with Ukraine. But it was an uncomfortable glimpse of the dangers for a continent that imports roughly half its gas and that Gérard Mestrallet, boss of Suez, a French water and power company, expects to be importing 80% of its gas by 2030--much of it from Russia. It was scarcely more welcome for America, which condemned Russia's tactics. And no wonder: it consumes one-quarter of the world's oil, but produces only 3% of the stuff. Over the coming years, the world's dependence on oil looks likely to concentrate on the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia. Russian oil had seemed a useful alternative. Fear of the energy weapon has a long history. When producers had the upper hand in the oil embargo of 1973-74, Arab members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut supply, sowing turmoil and a global recession. When consumers had the upper hand in the early 1990s, the embargo cut the other way. After Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990, the world shut in 5m barrels a day (b/d) of production from the two countries in an attempt to force him out. With oil costing $ 60 a barrel, five times more than the nominal price in 1999, and spot prices for natural gas in some European and American markets at or near record levels, power has swung back to the producers for the first time since the early 1980s. Nobody knows how long today's tight markets will last. "It took us a long time to get there and it will take us a long time to get back," says Robin West, chairman of PFC Energy in Washington. A clutch of alarmist books with titles such as "The Death of Oil" predict that so little oil is left in the ground that producers will always have pricing power. The question is how worried consumers should be. What are the threats to energy security and what should the world do about them? The answers suggest a need for planning and a certain amount of grim realism, but not for outright panic.
单选题Today Americans have different eating habits than in the past. There is a wide selection of food available. They have a broader knowledge of nutrition, so they buy more flesh fruit and vegetables than ever before. At the same time, Americans purchase increasing quantities of sweets, snacks and sodas. Statistics show that the way people live determines the way they eat. American life styles have changed. They now include growing numbers of people who live alone, single parents and children, and double-income families. These changing life styles are responsible for the increasing number of people who must rash meals or sometimes skip them altogether. Many Americans have less time than ever before to spend preparing food. Partly as a consequence of this limited time, 60 percent of all American homes now have microwave ovens. Moreover, Americans eat out nearly four times a week on the average. It is easy to study the amounts and kinds of food that people consume. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the food industry-growers, processors, marketers and restaurant managers compile sales statistics and keep accurate records. This information not only tells us what people are eating but also tells us about the changes in attitudes and tastes. Red meat, which used to be the most popular choice for dinner, is no longer an American favorite. Instead, chickens, turkey, and fish have become more popular. Sales of these foods have greatly increased in recent years. This is probably a result of the awareness of the dangers of eating food which contains high levels of cholesterol, or animal fat. Doctors believe that cholesterol is a threat to human health. According to a recent survey, Americans also change their eating patterns to meet the needs of different situations. They have certain ideas about which foods will increase their athletic ability, help them lose weight, make them alert for business meetings, or put them in the mood for romance. For example, Americans choose pasta, fruit, and vegetables, which supply them with carbohydrates, to give them strength for physical activity, such as sports. Adults choose food rich in fiber, such as bread and cereal, for breakfast, and salads for lunch to prepare them for business appointment. For romantic dinners, however, Americans choose shrimp and lobster. While many of these ideas are based on nutritional facts, some are not. Americans' awareness of nutrition, along with their changing tastes and needs, leads them to consume a wide variety of foods—foods for health, for fun, and simply for good taste.
