单选题 What If Middle-Class Jobs Disappear? [A] The most recent recession in the United States began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. However, two years after the official end of the recession, few Americans would say that economic troubles are behind us. The unemployment rate, in particular, remains above 9%. Some labor market indicators, such as the proportion of long-term unemployed, are worse now than for any postwar recession. [B] There are two widely circulated narratives to explain what's going on. The Keynesian narrative is that there has been a major drop in aggregate demand. According to this narrative, the slump can be largely cured by using monetary and fiscal(财政的) stimulus. The main anti-Keynesian narrative is that businesses are suffering from uncertainty and over-regulation. According to this narrative, the slump can be cured by having the government commit to and follow a more hands-off approach. [C] I want to suggest a third interpretation. Without ruling out a role for aggregate demand or for the regulatory environment, I wish to suggest that structural change is an important factor in the current rate of high unemployment. The economy is in a state of transition, in which the middle-class jobs that emerged after World War II have begun to decline. As Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee put it in a recent e-book Race Against the Machine: 'The root of our problems is not that we're in a great recession, or a great stagnation(停滞), but rather that we are in the early throes(阵痛) of a great restructuring.' [D] In fact, I believe the Great Depression of the 1930s can also be interpreted in part as an economic transition. The impact of the internal combustion engine (内燃机) and the small electric motor on farming and manufacturing reduced the value of uneducated laborers. Instead, by the 1950s, a middle class of largely clerical(从事文秘工作的) workers was the most significant part of the labor force. Between 1930 and 1950, the United States economy underwent a great transition. Demand fell for human effort such as lifting, squeezing, and hammering. Demand increased for workers who could read and follow directions. The evolutionary process eventually changed us from a nation of laborers to a nation of clerks. [E] The proportion of employment classified as 'clerical workers' grew from 5.2% in 1910 to a peak of 19.3% in 1980. (However, by 2000 this proportion had edged down to 17.4%.) Overall, workers classified as clerical workers, technical workers, managers and officials exceeded 50% of the labor force by 2000. Corresponding declines took place in the manual occupations. Workers classified as laborers, other than farm hands or miners, peaked at 11.4% of the labor force in 1920 but were barely 6% by 1950 and less than 4% by 2000. Farmers and farm laborers fell from 33% of the labor force in 1910 to less than 15% by 1950 and only 1.2% in 2000. [F] The introduction of the tractor and improvements in the factory rapidly reduced the demand for uneducated workers. By the 1930s, a marginal farm hand could not produce enough to justify his employment. Sharecropping, never much better than a subsistence occupation, was no longer viable(可行的). Meanwhile, machines were replacing manufacturing occupations like cigar rolling and glass blowing for light bulbs. [G] The structural-transition interpretation of the unemployment problem of the 1930s would be that the demand for uneducated workers in the United States had fallen, but the supply remained high. The high school graduation rate was only 8.8% in 1912 and still just 29% in 1931. By 1950, it had reached 59%. With a new generation of workers who had completed high school, the mismatch between skills and jobs had been greatly reduced. [H] What took place after World War II was not the revival of a 1920s economy, with its small farming units, urban manufacturing, and plurality of laborers. Instead, the 1950s saw the creation of a new suburban economy, with a plurality of white-collar workers. With an expanded transportation and communications infrastructure(基础设), businesses needed telephone operators, shipping clerks and similar occupations. If you could read, follow simple instructions, and settle into a routine, you could find a job in the post-war economy. [I] The trend away from manual labor has continued. Even within the manufacturing sector, the share of production and non-supervisory workers in manufacturing employment went from over 85% just after World War II to less than 70% in more recent years. To put this another way, the proportion of white-collar work in manufacturing has doubled over the past 50 years. On the factory floor itself, work has become less physically demanding. Instead, it requires more cognitive skills and the ability to understand and carry out well-defined procedures. [J] As noted earlier, the proportion of clerical workers in the economy peaked in 1980. By that date, computers and advanced communications equipment had already begun to affect telephone operations and banking. The rise of the personal computer and the Internet has widened the impact of these technologies to include nearly every business and industry. [K] The economy today differs from that of a generation ago. Mortgage and consumer loan underwriters(风险评估人) have been replaced by credit scoring. Record stores have been replaced by music downloads. Book stores are closing, while sales of books on electronic readers have increased. Data entry has been moved off shore. Routine customer support also has been outsourced(外包) overseas. [L] These trends serve to limit the availability of well-defined jobs. If a job can be characterized by a precise set of instructions, then that job is a candidate to be automated or outsourced to modestly educated workers in developing countries. The result is what David Autor calls the polarization of the American job market. [M] Using the latest Census Bureau data, Matthew Slaughter found that from 2000 to 2010 the real earnings of college graduates (with no advanced degree) fell by more in percentage terms than the earnings of high school graduates. In fact, over this period the only education category to show an increase in earnings was those with advanced degrees. [N] The outlook for mid-skill jobs would not appear to be bright. Communications technology and computer intelligence continue to improve, putting more occupations at risk. For example, many people earn a living as drivers, including trucks and taxicabs. However, the age of driverless vehicles appears to be moving closer. Another example is in the field of education. In the fall of 2011, an experiment with an online course in artificial intelligence conducted by two Stanford professors drew tens of thousands of registrants(报名者). This increases the student-teacher ratio by a factor of close to a thousand. Imagine the number of teaching jobs that might be eliminated if this could be done for math, economics, chemistry, and so on. [O] It's important to bear in mind that when we offer a structural interpretation of unemployment, a 'loss of jobs' means an increase in productivity. Traditionally, economists have argued that productivity increases are a good thing, even though they may cause unemployment for some workers in the short run. In the long run, the economy does not run out of jobs. Rather, new jobs emerge as old jobs disappear. The story we tell is that average well-being rises, and the more people are able to adapt, the more widespread the improvement becomes.

单选题 Biologically, there is only one quality which distinguishes us from animals: the ability to laugh. In a universe which appears to be utterly deficient of humor, we enjoy this supreme luxury. And it is a luxury, for unlike any other bodily process, laughter does not seem to serve a biologically useful purpose. In a divided world, laughter is a unifying force. Human beings oppose each other on a great many issues. Nations may disagree about systems of government and human relations may be plagued by ideological clans and political camps, but we all share the ability to laugh. And laughter, in turn, depends on that most complex and subtle of all human qualities: a sense of humor. Certain comic stereotypes have a universal appeal. This can best be seen from the world-wide popularity of Charlie Chaplin's early films. As that great commentator on human affairs, Dr. Samuel Johnson, once remarked, 'Men have been wise in very different modes but they have always laughed in the same way.' A sense of humor may take various forms and laughter may be anything from refined tinkle (清脆的声响) to an earth quaking roar, but the effect is always the same. Humor helps us to maintain a correct sense of values. It is the one quality which political fanatics (狂热者) appear to lack. If we can see the funny side, we never make the mistake of taking ourselves too seriously. We are always reminded that tragedy is not really far removed from comedy, so we never get one-sided view of things.' This is one of the chief functions of satire (讽刺) and irony. Human pain and suffering are so grim; we hover so often on the brink of war, political realities are usually enough to plunge us into total despair. In such circumstances, cartoons and satirical accounts of serious political events redress the balance. They take the wind out of arrogant politicians who have lost their sense of proportion. They enable us to see that many of our most profound actions are merely comic or absurd. We laugh when a great satirist like Swift writes about war in Gulliver's Travels. The Lilliputians and their neighbors attack each other because they can't agree which end to break an egg. We laugh because we are meant to laugh; but we are meant to weep too. The sense of humor must be singled out as man's most important quality because it is associated with laughter. And laughter, in turn, is associated with happiness. Courage, determination, initiative—these are qualities we share with other forms of life. But the sense of humor is uniquely human. If happiness is one of the great goals of life, then it is the sense of humor that provides the key.

单选题Directions:Forthispart,youareallowed30minutestowriteanessaybasedonthepicturebelow.Youshouldstartyouressaywithabriefdescriptionofthepictureandthendiscussthechangesinlifestylecausedbytheadvancesoftechnologies.Youshouldgivesoundargumentstosupportyourviewsandwriteatleast150wordsbutnomorethan200words.

单选题 Questions19-21 are based on the recording you have just heard.

单选题The tree people in the Lord of the Rings—the Ents—can get around by walking. But for real trees, it's harder to uproot. Because they're literally rooted into the ground, they are unable to leave and go 24 . When a tree first starts growing in a certain area, it's likely that the 25 envelope—the temperature, humidity, rainfall patterns and so on—suits it. Otherwise, it would be unable to grow from a seedling. But as it 26 , these conditions may change and the area around it may no longer be suitable for its 27 . When that happens, many trees like walnuts, oaks and pines, rely 28 on so-called 'scatter hoarders,' such as birds, to move their seeds to new localities. Many birds like to store food for the winter, which they 29 retrieve. When the birds forget to retrieve their food—and they do sometimes—a seedling has a chance to grow. The bird Clark's nutcracker, for example, hides up to 100,000 seeds per year, up to 30 kilometers away from the seed source, and has a very close symbiotic (共生的) relationship with several pine species, most 30 the whitebark pine. As trees outgrow their ideal 31 in the face of climate change, these flying ecosystem engineers could be a big help in 32 trees. It's a solution for us—getting birds to do the work is cheap and effective—and it could give 33 oaks and pines the option to truly 'make like a tree and leave.' A. ages I. legacy B. breathing J. notably C. climatic K. offspring D. elsewhere L. replanting E. exclusively M. subsequently F. forever N. vulnerable G. fruitful O. withdraws H. habitats

单选题 Directions: For this part, you are allowed 30 minutes to write an essay entitled The Courage of Making Mistakes by commenting on the saying 'The only man who never makes mistakes is the man who never does anything.' You should write at least 150 words but no more than 200 words.

单选题 America's recent history has been a persistent tilt to the West—of people, ideas, commerce and even political power. California and Texas are the twin poles of the West, but very different ones. For most of the 20th century the home of Silicon Valley and Hollywood has been the brainier and trendier of the two. Texas has trailed behind: its stereotype has been a conservative Christian in cowboy boots. But twins can change places. Is that happening now? It is easy to find evidence that California is in a panic. At the start of this month the once golden state started paying creditors in IOUs (欠条). The gap between projected outgoings and income for the current fiscal (财政的) year has leapt to a horrible $ 26 billion. With no sign of a new budget to close this gulf, one credit agency has already downgraded California's debt. As budgets are cut, universities will let in fewer students, prisoners will be released early and schemes to protect the vulnerable will be rolled back. By contrast, Texas has coped well with the recession, with an unemployment rate two points below the national average and one of the lowest rates of housing repossession. In part this is because Texan banks, hard hit in the last property bust, did not overexpand this time. Texas also clearly offers a different model, based on small government. It has no state capital-gains or income tax, and a business-friendly and immigrant-tolerant attitude. It is home to more Fortune 500 companies than any other state. Despite all this, it still seems too early to hand over America's future to Texas. To begin with, that lean Texan model has its own problems. It has not invested enough in education, and many experts rightly worry about a 'lost generation' of mostly Hispanic Texans with insufficient skills for the demands of the knowledge economy. Second, it has never paid to bet against a state with as many inventive people as California. Even if Hollywood has gone into depression, it still boasts an unequalled array of sunrise industries and the most brisk venture-capital industry on the planet. The state also has an awesome ability to reinvent itself—as it did when its defence industry collapsed at the end of the cold war. The truth is that both states could learn from each other. Texas still lacks California's great universities and lags in terms of culture. California could adopt not just Texas's leaner state, but also its more bipartisan (两党的) approach to politics. There is no perfect model of government; it is America's genius to have 50 public-policy laboratories competing to find out what works best.

单选题 Volcanoes are the ultimate earth-moving machinery. Eruptions have rifted continents, raised mountain chains, constructed islands and shaped the topography of the earth. The entire ocean floor has a basement of volcanic basalt. Volcanoes have not only made the continents, they are also thought to have made the world's first stable atmosphere and provided all the water for the oceans, rivers and ice-caps. There are now about 600 active volcanoes. Every year they add two or three cubic kilometers of rock to the continents. Imagine a similar number of volcanoes smoking away for the last 3,500 million years. That is enough rock to explain the continental crust. What comes out of volcanic craters is mostly gas. More than 90% of this gas is water vapor from the deep earth: enough to explain, over 3,500 million years, the water in the oceans. The rest of the gas is nitrogen, carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide, methane, ammonia and hydrogen. The quantity of these gases, again multiplied over 3,500 million years, is enough to explain the mass of the world's atmosphere. We are alive because volcanoes provided the soil, air and water we need. Geologists consider the earth as having a molten core, surrounded by a semi-molten mantle and a brittle, outer skin. It helps to think of a soft-boiled egg with a runny yolk, a firm but squishy white and a hard shell. If the shell is even slightly cracked during boiling, the white material bubbles out and sets like a tiny mountain chain over the crack—like an archipelago of volcanic islands such as the Hawaiian Islands. But the earth is so much bigger and the mantle below is so much hotter. Even though the mantle rocks are kept solid by overlying pressure, they can still slowly 'flow' like thick treacle. The flow, thought to be in the form of convection currents, is powerful enough to fracture the 'eggshell' of the crust into plates, and keep them bumping and grinding against each other, or even overlapping, at the rate of a few centimeters a year. These fracture zones, where the collisions occur, are where earthquakes happen. And, very often, volcanoes.

单选题 Results showed that at least a tenth of the Harvard first-year undergraduates polled admitted to having cheated on an exam prior to starting at the university, while almost half admitted to cheating on their homework. An anonymous survey by Harvard's newspaper has revealed a surprising pattern of academic dishonesty among students entering the US universities. The survey by The Harvard Crimson was emailed to the incoming first year undergraduates; 1,600 students responded. Results showed that at least a tenth of the students polled admitted to having cheated on an exam prior to starting at the university, while almost half admitted to cheating on their homework. Athletes were apparently the most prone to cheating. 20 percent of students who played a university sport admitted to cheating on an exam compared to 9 percent of students who did not. The survey also revealed that men were not only more likely to cheat but were also more likely to admit to it. The results, compared to a previous survey done on the class of 2013, suggested that cheating may be becoming more commonplace. Of the outgoing seniors only 7 percent admitted to cheating in an exam and another 7 percent said they had been dishonest on a take-home test. 32 percent of the seniors said they had cheated on homework during their undergraduate years... The surveys come in the wake of a cheating scandal at the university which saw 120 students investigated for sharing answers on an exam in 2012. One recent graduate stated: 'Cheating was commonplace when I was at Harvard, especially with students in their first year or two. I would say as many as 60 percent of students took notes into some exams. No one really cared the faculty, well some of them at least, seemed to recognize and yet ignore the problem.' In an email to NBC News, Jeff Neal, a Harvard representative, explained that a committee, made up of faculty, staff and students had been established to tackle cheating, which 'is a national problem in American education'. He added: 'While the vast majority of Harvard and other students do their work honestly, beginning this year Harvard College has implemented a new, more robust strategy of communicating with all students, particularly first-year students, about the importance—and the ways to achieve—academic integrity.' In a rebuff to critics who say university has become little more than an expensive party, 84 percent of the responding undergraduates fully expected to prioritize their academics over extracurricular activities, sport, employment and their social lives. Not a single student put academics at the bottom of their list. Not content with confining themselves to their degree subject, 59 percent of incoming students expressed a desire to pursue a secondary field of study, and 36 percent hoped to learn a language.

单选题 Questions10-13 are based on the passage you have just heard.

单选题 The report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was just as gloomy as anticipated. Unemployment in January lumped to a 16-year high of 7.6 percent, as 598 000 jobs were slashed from US payrolls in the worst single-month decline since December, 1974. With 1.8 million jobs lost in the last three months, there is urgent desire to boost the economy as quickly as possible. But Washington would do well to take a deep breath before reacting to the grim numbers. Collectively, we rely on the unemployment figures and other statistics to frame our sense of reality. They are a vital part of an array of data that we use to assess if we're doing well or doing badly, and that in turn shapes government policies and corporate budgets and personal spending decisions. The problem is that the statistics aren't an objective measure of reality; they are simply a best approximation. Directionally, they capture the trends, but the idea that we know precisely how many are unemployed is a myth. That makes finding a solution all the more difficult. First, there is the way the data is assembled. The official unemployment rate is the product of a telephone survey of about 60 000 homes. There is another survey, sometimes referred to as the 'payroll survey, ' that assesses 400 000 businesses based on their reported payrolls. Both surveys have problems. The payroll survey can easily double-count someone: if you are one person with two jobs, you show up as two workers. The payroll survey also doesn't capture the number of self-employed, and so says little about how many people are generating an independent income. The household survey has a larger problem. When asked straightforwardly, people tend to lie or shade the truth when the subject is sex, money or employment. If you get a call and are asked if you're employed, and you say yes, you're employed. If you say no, however, it may surprise you to learn that you are only unemployed if you've been actively looking for work in the past four weeks; otherwise, you are 'marginally attached to the labor force' and not actually unemployed. The urge to quantify is embedded in our society. But the idea that statisticians can then capture an objective reality isn't just impossible. It also leads to serious misjudgments. Democrats and Republicans can and will take sides on a number of issues, but a more crucial concern is that both are basing major policy decisions on guesstimates rather than looking at the vast wealth of raw data with a critical eye and an open mind.

单选题 The most important divide in America today is class, not race, and the place where it matters most is in the home. Conservatives have been banging on about family breakdown for decades. Now one of the nation's most prominent liberal scholars has joined the chorus. Robert Putnam is a former dean of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government and the author of Bowling Alone (2000), an influential work that lamented the decline of social capital in America. In his new book, Our Kids, he describes the growing gulf between how the rich and the poor raise their children. Among the educated elite the traditional family is thriving: fewer than 10% of births to female college graduates are outside marriage—a figure that is barely higher than it was in 1970. In 2007 among women with just a high-school education, by contrast, 65% of births were non-marital. Race makes a difference: only 2% of births to white college graduates are out-of-wedlock, compared with 80% among African-Americans with no more than a high-school education, but neither of these figures has changed much since the 1970s. However, the non-marital birth proportion among high-school-educated whites has quadrupled, to 50%, and the same figure for college-educated blacks has fallen by a third, to 25%. Thus the class divide is growing even as the racial gap is shrinking. Upbringing affects opportunity. Upper-middle-class homes are not only richer (with two professional incomes) and more stable; they are also more nurturing. In the 1970s, there were practically no class differences in the amount of time that parents spent talking, reading and playing with toddlers. Now the children of college-educated parents receive 50% more of what Mr. Putnam calls 'Goodnight Moon' time (after a popular book for infants). Working-class parents, who have less spare capacity, are more likely to demand that their kids simply obey them. In the short run this saves time; in the long run it prevents the kids from learning to organize their own lives or think for themselves. Poor parenting is thus a barrier to social mobility, and is becoming more so as the world grows more complex and the rewards for superior cognitive skills increase. Stunningly, Mr. Putnam finds that family background is a better predictor of whether or not a child will graduate from university than 8th-grade test scores. Kids in the richest quarter with low test scores are as likely to make it through college as kids in the poorest quarter with high scores. Mr. Putnam suggests a grab-bag of policies to help poor kids reach their potential, such as raising subsidies for poor families, teaching them better parenting skills, improving nursery care and making after-school baseball clubs free. He urges all 50 states to experiment to find out what works. A problem this complex has no simple solution.