填空题People are unselfish because they are militaristic, and cultured because they are common. At least that is the message of a couple of new studies. Two of the oddest things about people are morality and culture. Neither is unique to humans,-but Homo sapiens (humans) have both in an abundance missing from other species. (41) ______ How these human traits evolved is controversial. But two papers may throw light on the process. In one, Samuel Bowles of the Santa Fe Institute in New Mexico fieshes out his paradoxical theory that much of human virtue was forged in the war. Comrades in arms, he believes, become comrades in other things, too. (42) ______. It also requires a dense population. Dr Bowles's argument starts in an obscure crack of evolutionary theory called group selection. This suggests that groups of collaborative individuals will often do better than groups of selfish ones, and thus prosper at their expense. (43)______ This good-of-the-group argument was widely believed until the 1960s, when it was subject to rigorous scrutiny and found wanting~ The new theory does not pitch groups against groups, or even individuals against individuals, but genes against genes. In fact, this theory does not disallow unselfish behavior. (44)______. The "selfish gene" analysis, so called after a book by Richard Dawkins, makes good-of-the-group theory almost impossible to achieve. Dr Bowles has focused the argument on war, since it is both highly collaborative and often genetically terminal for the losers. In his latest paper he puts some numbers on the idea. He looks at the data, plugs them into a mathematical model of his devising and finds a pleasing outcome. Dr Thomas and his colleagues also rely on a mathematical model. The model suggested that once more than about 50 groups were in contact with one another, the complexity of skills that could be maintained did not increase as the number of groups increased. Rather, it was population density that turned out to be the key to cultural sophistication. (45)______ Dr Thomas therefore suggests that the reason there is so little sign of culture until 90,000 years ago is that there were not enough people to support it. According to him, culture was not invented once, when people had become clever enough, and then gradually built up into the edifice it is today. Rather, it came and went as the population waxed and waned. Since the invention of agriculture, of course, the population has done nothing but wax. The consequences are all around you.[A] In the other paper, Mark Thomas and his colleagues at University College, London, suggest that cultural sophistication depends on more than just the evolution of intelligence.[B] It is therefore no surprise, according to group-selectionists, that individuals might be genetically predetermined to act in self-sacrificial ways.[C] But it requires that this evolve in a way that promotes the interest of a particular gene--for example by helping close relatives who might also harbor the gene in question.[D] This, he contends, allows the evolution of collaborative, unselfish traits that would not otherwise be possible.[E] The more people there were, the more exchange there was between groups and the richer the culture of each group became.[F] Indeed, that abundance--of concern for the well-being of others, (even unrelated others), and of finely crafted material objects both useful and ornamental--is seen by many as the mark of man, as what distinguishes humanity from mere beasts.[G] They note the word "almost" in the argument above and contend that humans, with their high intelligence and possession of language, and their tendency to live in small, tightly knit groups, might be exceptional.
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填空题[A]Generally,however,modernexaminationsarewritten.Twotypesoftestsarecommonlyusedinmodernschools.Thefirsttypeissometimescalledan"objective"test.Itisintendedtodealwithfacts,notpersonalopinions.Tomakeupanobjectivetesttheteacherwritesaseriesofquestion,eachofwhichhasonlyonecorrectanswer.Alongwitheachquestiontheteacherwritesthecorrectanswerandalsothreestatementsthatlooklikeanswerstostudentswhohavenotlearnedthematerialproperly,Thestudenthasjustonetask:hemustrecognizethecorrectanswerandcopyitsletter(ornumber)onhisexaminationpaper.[B]Foraclearerpictureofwhatthestudentknows,mostteachersuseanotherkindofexaminationinadditiontoobjectivetests.Theyuse"essay"tests,whichrequirestudentstowritelonganswerstobroad,generalquestionssuchasthefollowing:MentionseveralwaysinwhichMahatmaGandhihasinfluencedthethinkingofpeopleinhisowncountryandinotherpartsoftheworld.[C]Whetheranobjectivetestoranessaytestisused,problemsarise.Whensomeobjectivequestionsareusedalongwithsomeessayquestions,however,afairlyclearpictureofthestudent'sknowledgecanusuallybeobtained.[D]Fortestingastudent'smemoryoffactsanddetails,theobjectivetesthasadvantages.Itcanbescoredveryquicklybytheteacherorevenbyamachine.Inashorttimetheteachercanfindoutagreatdealaboutthestudent'srangeofknowledge.Fortestingsomekindsoflearning,however,suchatestisnotverysatisfactory.Aluckystudentmayguessthecorrectanswerwithoutreallyknowingthematerial.[E]Inancienttimesthemostimportantexaminationswerespoken,notwritten.IntheschoolsofancientGreeceandRome,testingusuallyconsistedofsayingpoetryaloudorgivingspeeches.IntheEuropeanuniversitiesoftheMiddleAges,studentswhowereworkingforadvanceddegreeshadtodiscussquestionsintheirfieldofstudywithpeoplewhohadmadeaspecialstudyofthesubject.Thiscustomexiststodayaspartoftheprocessoftestingcandidatesfordoctor'sdegree.[F]Oneadvantageoftheessaytestisthatitreducestheelementofluck.Thestudentcannotgetahighscorejustbymakingaluckyguess.Anotheradvantageisthatitshowstheexaminermoreaboutthestudent'sabilitytoputfactstogetherintoameaningfulwhole.Itshouldshowhowdeeplyhehasthoughtaboutthesubject.Sometimes,though,essaytestshavedisadvantages,too.Somestudentsareabletowritegoodanswerswithoutreallyknowingmuchaboutthesubject,whileotherstudentswhoactuallyknowthematerialhavetroubleexpressingtheirideasinessayform.[G]Besides,onanessaytestthestudent'sscoremaydependupontheexaminer'sfeelingsatthetimeofreadingtheanswer.Ifheisfeelingtiredorbored,thestudentmayreceivealowerscorethanheshould.Anotherexaminerreadingthesameanswermightgiveitamuchhighermark.Fromthisstandpointtheobjectivetestgiveseachstudentafairerchance,andofcourseitiseasierandquickertoscore.
填空题{{B}}Directions:{{/B}}You are going to read a list of headings and a text
about happiness. Choose the most suitable heading from the list A--F for each
numbered paragraph (41- 45). The first and last paragraphs of the text are not
numbered. There is one extra heading which you do not need to use. Mark your
answers on ANSWER SHEET 1.
[A] Various definitions and interpretations of happiness.[B] One
episode of enjoying happiness.[C] Some misconceptions about
happiness.[D] Where to seek happiness?[E] Happiness is equivalent to the
ability to rejoice.[F] The complexity of how to define happiness.
"Are you happy?" I asked my brother, Ian, one day. "Yes. Nod It depends
what you mean," he said. "Then tell me," I said, "when was the
last time you think you were happy?" "April 1967," he
said. It served me right for putting a serious question to
someone who has joked his way through life. But Ian's answer reminded me that
when we think about happiness, we usually think of something extraordinary, a
pinnacle of sheer delight--and those pinnacles seem to get rarer the older we
get. 41.________________________. For a child,
happiness has a magical quality. I remember making hide-outs in newly cut hay,
playing cops and robbers in the woods, getting a speaking part in the school
play. Of course, kids also experience lows, but their delight at such peaks of
pleasure as winning a race or getting a new bike is unreserved. In the teenage
years the concept of happiness changes. Suddenly it's conditional on such things
as excitement, love, popularity and whether that zit will clear up before prom
night I can still feel the agony of not being invited to a party that almost
everyone else was going to. But I also recall the ecstasy of being plucked from
obscurity at another event to dance with a John Travolta look-alike. In
adulthood the things that bring profound joy--birth, love, marriage--also bring
responsibility and the risk of loss. Love may not last, sex isn't always
good, loved ones die. For adults, happiness is
complicated. 42.________________________. My
dictionary defines happy as "lucky" or "fortunate," but I think a better
definition of happiness is "the capacity for enjoyment." The more we can enjoy
what we have, the happier we are. It's easy to overlook the pleasure we get from
loving and being loved, the company of friends, the freedom to live where we
please, even good health. I added up my little moments of pleasure yesterday.
First there was sheer bliss when I shut the last lunchbox and had the house to
myself. Then I spent an uninterrupted morning writing, which I love. When the
kids came home, I enjoyed their noise after the quiet of the day. Later, peace
descended again, and my husband and I enjoyed another pleasure-intimacy.
Sometimes just the knowledge that he wants me can bring me joy.
43.________________________. You never know where happiness will
turn up next. When I asked friends what makes them happy, some mentioned
seemingly insignificant moments. "I hate shopping," one friend said. "But
there's this clerk who always chats and really cheers me up." Another friend
loves the telephone. "Every time it rings, I know someone is thinking about
me." 44.________________________. I get a thrill
from driving. One day I stopped to let a school bus turn onto a side road. The
driver grinned and gave me a thumbs-up sign. We were two allies in a world of
mad motorists. It made me smile. We all experience moments like these. Too few
of us register then as happiness.
45.________________________. Psychologists tell us that to
be happy we need a blend of enjoyable leisure time and satisfying work. I doubt
that my great-grandmother, who raised 14 children and took in washing, had much
of either. She did have a net-work of close friends and family, and maybe this
is what fulfilled her. If she was happy with what she had, perhaps it was
because she didn't expect life to be very different. We, on the other hand, with
so many choices and such pressure to succeed in every area, have turned
happiness into one more thing we "gotta have." We're so self-conscious about our
"right" to it that it's making us miserable. So we chase it and equate it with
wealth and success, without noticing that the people who have those things
aren't neeessaiily happier. While happiness may be more complex
for us, the solution is the same as ever. Happiness isn't about what happens to
us--it's about how we perceive what happens to us. It's the knack of finding a
positive for every negative, and viewing a setback as a challenge. It's not
wishing for what we don't have, but enjoying what we do possess.
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填空题{{B}}Directions:{{/B}} In the following article, some sentences
have been removed. For Question 41--45, choose the most suitable one the list
A--G to fit into each of the numbered blank. There are two extra choices, which
do not fit in any of the gaps. Mark your answers on ANSWER SHEET 1.
It is difficult to overstate how the reforms since 1978 have
improved the life of the average citizen in China. According to China's Office
on Poverty Alleviation and Development, well over 100 million individuals have
risen out of destitution and now live above the official poverty line (set at
annual per capita income below 640, which equals $ 77). At present, 42 million
Chinese still live below the poverty line. Much work, of course, remains to be
done in this regard. In addition to helping alleviate poverty,
the economic reforms in China have brought overall gains as well as the gains
per capital income for both urban and rural residents suggest. While there is
some question on the veracity of data. The overall quality of
life for the average citizen in China has improved dramatically since the reform
in 1978. Citizens now have access to better services in crucial areas such as
health care and 'education. 41. ______. The
better lives that citizens in China now lead is a direct result of the decision
by China's leadership in 1978 to pursue the path of economic reform in a more
marked-oriented direction. Despite the overall importance of the
domestic economy in determining China's economic future, there still are two
reasons why China's entry to the WTO will help its citizens lead better
lives. 42. ______. As noted above, government
officials in China report that roughly 20% of the increase in GDP during the
1990's is attributable to growth in exports. Still, exports in
some key sectors such as textiles and other labor-intensive sectors would
expand. Overall, in light of long-term dynamic effects, the Chinese government
predicts that China's entry to the WTO would increase its GDP by 95.5 billion ($
23.64 billion), or 1.5 percent by 2005. And while acknowledging that some 10
million jobs will be lost in agriculture, auto and machinery sectors.
43. ______. Chinese firms will also face a more stable
export environment, one less subject to anti-dumping and special safeguard
provisions. The country will be able to enjoy stable multilateral preferential
trade polices in a rules-based market. 44. ______.
As noted above, China's transition to a market-oriented economy is not
complete and elements of centralized planning remain. And it is quite clear that
despite the impressive gains, China has made economically over the past 20
years, many intractable problems remain, such as the restructuring of
state-owned enterprises half of which are losing money. China's industrial
landscape is littered with" empty-shell enterprises" and state officials
routinely argue that some 30% of the workforce in SOEs is superfluous.
China's banking system is in precarious position as well, given declining
capital adequacy and the continued reliance of the state-banking system on
policy-based lending as opposed to examination of market criteria. To a large
extent these economic problems reflect the inherent difficulty of trying to
recover from 30 years of horribly misguided economic policies.
45. ______.[A] Millions more now have electricity (and consequently,
refrigeration) and telephone service as well.[B] The second and more
important reason that China's entry to the WTO will help China's citizenry is
that it will strengthen the hand of pro-reform elements in the
government.[C] The best way out of this economic dilemma, however, is for
China to continue to strengthen its reform effort, not to restrict.[D] In
the late-1990s and early-2000s, the focus was also on industrial reform, which
involved the painful closing of unprofitable state-owned factories and the
development of social security systems.[E] First, as China's largest export
market after Hong Kong, the United States plays a primary role in enriching
Chinese companies, primarily non-state-owned entities.[F] Surprisingly, many
international companies now spend a lot of money on training.[G] Chinese
economists predict that WTO membership will create 12 million jobs in other
sectors such as textiles, toys, and footwear.
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填空题{{B}}Directions:{{/B}}In the following article, some sentences have been
removed. For Questions 41~45, choose the most suitable one from the list A~G to
fit into each of the numbered blanks. There are two extra choices which do not
fit in any of the gaps. Mark your answers on ANSWER SHEET 1.
The race to select the Beijing 2008 Olympic mascot is heating
up and from all accounts the panda is out in front. According to news reports,
the Sichuan panda team is pulling out all the stops to get the giant panda
chosen—not surprisingly, as most of the pandas in China can be found in
Sichuan.41)__________. So what does an Olympic mascot represent
to the world? The Sichuan team says that the giant panda represents the peace
and harmony of the Olympic spirit, but is that what a panda really portrays?
What, after all, does a giant panda do all day? It pulls down bamboo shoots and
eats, and when it's not eating, it sleeps, That's it! That is all a panda
does.42)__________. Fortunately there are other candidates for
the honor of representing the Beijing Olympics, including the Chinese tiger. Now
there's a contrast with the panda! The tiger is sleek; the tiger is swift. When
the tiger springs into action, one can see its muscles ripple with energy; When
a tiger is hunting for food, first it stalks its prey, perhaps a herd of wild
swine. Then it chooses a victim and cleverly plans its strategy for the chase.
Carefully choosing its moment, the tiger takes off with power and speed, as much
as 80 km per hour.43)__________.The tiger is sleek, strong, swift and uses
clever strategy to achieve its goal. Is it not the ideal animal to represent the
athletes who have planned and carried out Icing-term strategies to qualify for
the Olympics? 44)__________. However, the tiger, like most
predatory animals, is not truly vicious—this is a common misperception. Under
normal circumstances it kills only for food. When hungry it goes after its prey
with fierce determination. it not take fierce determination for an athlete to
win a medal in the Olympics? Some years ago, Shell carried out a
very successful ad campaign in Canada and the US. The ads showed a tiger getting
into the gas tank of an auto; the accompanying slogan was "Put a tiger in your
tank!"45)__________. Nowadays China is amazing everyone with the power and speed
of its economic development, far outstripping the other nations of the world. In
the latest Olympics, the Chinese athletes surprised the world not only with the
number of medals they won but also with the categories in which they won them. I
would therefore argue that Beijing's 2008 Olympic mascot should be an animal
that embodies the great qualities, power and speed, of the Chinese athletes and
their homeland--the Chinese tiger. A. One might say that the
giant panda is fat and lazy! What if there is no bamboo? Does it find other
food? No. When the panda's food disappears, the panda disappears. In fact,
the giant panda is a very vulnerable animal and that is why today it is at risk
of extinction. Do Chinese really want a fat, lazy animal for their Olympic
mascot? B. Everyone understood the message: the tiger meant
extra power and speed for your car. The original Olympics in Greece brought
together athletes in a fierce trial of power and speed. C.
Recently it was brought to my attention that the 1988 Seoul Olympics had a tiger
mascot. Does this make the tiger ineligible for use in the 2008 Beijing
Olympics? In an informal poll of my friends and colleagues, I discovered that no
one remembered the mascot of the 1988 games. In fact, they did not remember the
mascot of the Sydney Olympics or even of this year's Athens Olympics.
D. They have created 29 possible panda designs for consideration by the
Beijing Olympic organizing committee, which will be making the choice.
E. To be sure, the giant panda seems loveable whereas the tiger might be
thought by some to be rather fierce. F. Does that not make the
tiger a better choice to represent an Olympic competition, where the world's top
athletes come together to see who is the strongest, the fastest and the
best? G. Yes, the tiger has been revered and admired in China
for thousands of years. With its natural characteristics of speed and power, the
Chinese tiger would, I am convinced, be a superb mascot for the 2008
Olympics!
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填空题A. For governments that overcome tobacco-company lobbying and political inertia, the benefits can be huge. After Turkey adopted its comprehensive package, the male smoking rate dropped from 52% to 41% in eight years. In Europe 30% of those who have ever smoked are now ex-smokers. Getting people to quit at that rate in China, where 1.4m a year die early from tobacco, would avoid 35m premature deaths.
B. Bans on smoking in public places can have immediate benefits. In eight countries in Europe and the Americas, admissions to hospital for heart disease fell by an average of 17% in the year after the implementation of such a ban. Gruesome public-information campaigns can help. America"s "Tips From Former Smokers" campaign, which showed people crippled by smoking-related diseases, persuaded around 100,000 people to quit. At a cost of $ 480 per person, it was a good investment: according to a Danish study, the lifetime benefits to men of giving up smoking at 35 are around 25,000 ($ 27,400), most of that in increased productivity. Costa Rica and the Philippines send aspiring quitters text messages with handy tips on giving up: a trial suggested that doubled quit rates. And electronic cigarettes can help: 7% of British quitters use them.
C. Solving some of the world"s great health problems, such as cancer and Alzheimer"s disease, remains beyond the wit of science. Not smoking. For over a decade, it has been clear what countries need to do to get people to quit. Yet although rates continue to fall in some countries—such as America and Britain-elsewhere they are rising. That"s true not just in the poor world, where people are getting prosperous enough to take up the habit, but also in bits of the rich world: on some measures rates are plateauing in Germany, France, Belgium and Portugal after decades of decline. It is time to push them down.
D. But according to a WHO report published on July 7th, Turkey is the only country to have introduced all the necessary measures. Some countries, such as Indonesia, still have hardly any regulations. Others have too many loopholes. In France, for instance, the availability of covered patios undermines the ban on smoking in restaurants.
E. Banning smoking would be wrong. It would be not only illiberal—people should be allowed to indulge in their pleasures, even lethal ones—but also ineffective. As the decades-long "war on drugs" shows, when people really want to get hold of a mind-altering substance, be it heroin or tobacco, they will. Bans on legal sales fuel illegal ones. But discouraging smoking is entirely legitimate: smokers pollute the air other people breathe, they damage their families when they die prematurely, and the addictive nature of the habit weakens the argument that smoking is a freely chosen pleasure.
F. The idea of developing countries leapfrogging rich ones is familiar in technology, but it can apply to social policy, too. Over the past half-century, the rich world has learned slow and painful lessons about how to persuade people not to take up smoking, or to quit it if they already have. Low and middle-income countries can adopt those measures before their citizens get addicted. At virtually no cost, many millions of people can be saved from painful, premature deaths, and their families from misery.
G. The most effective measure against smoking is taxation. Fiscal engineers need to be careful to set the rate neither so high that it encourages smugglers, nor so low that it fails to deter smokers. The WHO reckons that it should be at least three-quarters of the value of a pack. And, as they raise the tobacco tax, governments need simultaneously to tighten their borders. Britain cut the smugglers" share of the market from 21% to 9% by sharpening customs operations.
Order:
1
→E→
2
→B→
3
→
4
→
5
填空题[A]Althoughitdoesnotlookappealing,inrealitythesepeoplehavegoodlives.Theirjobsdonotpayafortunebuttheylovethemandtheirlivesarestress-free.AndnoonewouldguessthattheymakesolittlebecausetheylivemuchBetterthanmanyoftheirfriendsWhomakealotmore.Soifyouwantmoremoneyyouhavetocountyourpennies;thereisnootherwaythantospendwisely.[B]Whenitcomestomoneymanagementyouneedtothinklongterm.Moneymanagementisnotonlyhowyoumanageyourmoneyrightnow;itishowyouwillmakesureyourincomeandwealthwillincreaseovertime.Inordertomakemoremoney,mostAmericanstaketheeasiestroute:getasecondjob.Thisiseasy;itwillgivemoremoneyimmediately,butitmaycomeataveryhighcost.[C]LookatthecaseofMelissaandherhusband.Theyownanicehome,beautifullydecoratedinaniceneighborhood,theyhaveregularcarsingoodcondition(thoughwithmorethan100Kmilesoneachcar),theydresswellandtraveltoexoticdestinationsonceayear.Howdotheydoit?Theylivewisely.Theydonotbuyanewearjustbecausepeoplesaythatafter100Kmilesaearisgoodfornothing.Theircarslookgoodandrunwellbemusetheytakecareofthem.Theyarenotplanningonbuyinganewcaranytimesoon.Thisisahugeexpensethattheydonotwanttotake;theyowntheircarsrightnowandtheydonotwantadditionaldebt.[D]Ifyouhavechildren,itmaycomeatthecostofprecioustimewiththemoryourfamily.Ifyouaresingleandhavenochildren,itmaycostyoupeaceandtimeforrelaxation.Butbeyondthat,itmaycostyoulongterm:notbeingabletopursuebiggerdreams.[E]Youcansavemoneyinmanywaysincludingbuyingless,orbuyingcheaper,orevenbuyingsmarter.Peoplewhoseemtohavemoneyforeverythingandstilldonotcarrycreditcarddebtshouldbeadmired.[F]Moneyandcareerwiseyouhavetobesmartandnottaketheshortestpath,butthebest,high-valuepath,Besidewhatyoudoforaliving,themoneyyousavehastobeinvestedwellsothatyouhavegoodreturns.Oneofthebestinvestmentsyoucanhaveisahome(unlessyouneedtorentsinceyouwillbeinaspecificlocationonlyforaveryshorttime).Topayrentistoliterallyputmoneydownthedrain.Thehomeyoubuyhastobesuchthatyoucanmakeprofitinafewyearssothatyoucanbuyabiggerhomeorasimilarhomeandsavetherest.[G]Inotherwords,ifyoudevoteyourtimetolearnanewskillorstartyourownbusiness,thiswillnotgiveyoumoneyimmediately,butinthelongtermitwillgivemoremoneyandpersonalsatisfactionthanastupidsecondjob.Order:
填空题{{B}}Directions:{{/B}}In the following text, some sentences have been
removed. For questions 41--45, choose the most suitable one from the list A--G
to fit into each of the numbered blank. There are two extra choices, which do
not fit in any of the gaps. Mark your answers on ANSWER SHEET 1.
If good intentions and good ideas were all it took to save the
deteriorating atmosphere, the planet's fragile layer of air would be as good as
fixed. The two great dangers threatening the blanket of gases that nurtures and
protects life on earth-global warming and the thinning ozone layer--have been
identified. Better yet, scientists and policymakers have come up with effective
though expensive countermeasures. (2)
41._________________. (3) CFCs-first fingered as dangerous
in the 1970s by Sherwood Rowland and Mario M01ina, two of this year's
Nobel-prizewinning chemists--have been widely used for refrigeration and other
purposes. (4) If uncontrolled, the CFC assault on the ozone
layer could increase the amount of hazardous solar ultraviolet light that
reaches the earth's surface, which would, among other things, damage crops and
bring disasters to environment. (5) Thanks to a sense of urgency
triggered by the 1985 detection of what has turned out to be an annual "hole" in
the especially vulnerable ozone over Antarctica, the Montreal accords have
spurred industry to replace dangerous CFCs with safer substances.
(6) 42._________________. (7) Nonetheless,
observes British Antarctic Survey meteorologist Jonathan Shanklin: "It will be
the middle of the next century before things are back to where they were in the
1970s." (8) Even that timetable could be thrown off by
international smugglers who have been bringing illegal CFCs into industrial
countries to use in repairing or recharging old appliances.
(9) 43._________________. (10) Developing
countries were given more time to comply with the Montreal Protocol and were
promised that they would receive $ 250 million from richer nations to pay for
the CFC phaseout. At the moment, though, only 60% of those funds has been
forthcoming. This is a critical time. (11) It is also a critical
time for warding off potentially catastrophic climate change Waste gases such as
carbon dioxide, Methane and the same CFCs that wreck the ozone layer all tend to
trap sunlight and warm the earth. The predicted results: and eventual melting of
polar ice caps, rises in sealevels and shifts in climate patterns.
(12) 44._________________. (13) The
encouraging precedent is the Montreal Protocol for ozone protection, which
showed how quickly nations can act when they finally recognize a disaster. A
related lesson is that if CFCs do disappear, it will be partly because chemical
manufactures discover they can make a profit by selling safer
replacements. (14)
45._________________. (15) If that happens, then all
nations, from the rich to the poor, may end up working to save the atmosphere
for the same reason they've polluted it: pure economic self-interest.[A]
Says Nelson Sabogal of the U. N. Environment Program: "If developed countries
don't come up with the money, the ozone layer will not recuperate."[B] But
that doesn't mean these problems are anywhere close to being solved. The
stratospheric ozone layer, for example, is still getting thinner, despite the
1987 international agreement known as the Montreal Protocol, which calls for a
phaseout of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other ozone-depleting chemicals by
the year 2006.[C] The same process may ultimately be what mitigates global
warming. After long years of effort, manufacturers of solar-power cells are at
last close to matching the low costs of more conventional power technologies.
And a few big orders from utilities could drive the price down to competitive
levels.[D] Yet the CFCs already in the air are still doing their dirty work.
The Antarctic ozone hole is more severe this year than ever before, and ozone
levels over temperate regions are dipping as well. If the CFC phaseout proceeds
on schedule, the atmosphere should start repairing itself by the year 2000, say
scientists.[E] Last year alone 20 000 tons of contraband CFCs entered the U.
S.--mostly from India, where the compounds are less restricted.[F] Until
recently, laggard governments could to scientific uncertainty about whether
global warming has started, but that excuse is wearing thin. A draft report
circulating on the Internet has proclaimed for the first time that warming has
indeed begun.[G] The good news is that this gloomy scenario may galvanize
the world's governments into taking serious action. For example, though it's now
more costly to generate electricity from solar cells than from would otherwise
have to be spent in the future combating the effects of global warming.
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