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问答题In the eyes of Edmund Daukoru, Nigeria"s oil minister and the current president of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the price of oil is "very low ". Compared with July, when it peaked at $ 78.40 a barrel, he is right. Since then, it has fallen by almost a quarter. On September 25th, it briefly slipped below $ 60 a barrel, its lowest level in six months. The same analysts who just a few short months ago were wondering about the effect of expensive oil on the world economy are now pondering the consequences of a slump.
That might prove premature. For one thing, Mr. Daukoru insists that OPEC will do something to stem the slide. At its last meeting, in mid-September, the group threatened to cut its output without notice if the price fell further. Saudi Arabia, for one, has been selling less oil of late. Ministers from different OPEC countries have been making different noises about whether a cut is desirable or likely, but all would be loath to see their revenues eroded by lower prices.
The world is still consuming almost as much oil as it can pump, so any reduction in supply could send prices skywards again. Both the relative calm of this year"s hurricane season and the diminishing threat of an interruption to Iran"s oil exports seem to have contributed to the recent fall. But should clouds gather over the Atlantic, or tempers rise in the Middle East, the price could jump again.
Moreover, the price of oil usually falls in the autumn, after the summer surge in petrol consumption has abated but before winter brings higher demand for heating oil. According to Sabine Schels, a commodity strategist at Merrill Lynch, seasonal swings in fuel prices are becoming more pronounced, thanks to a shortage of refining and storage capacity. At times of peak demand, she argues, the petrol price must rise high enough to prompt the reopening of old and inefficient refineries that would not normally be profitable. Those refineries, in turn, use up a lot more oil, pushing up its price too.
Oil markets will not escape this cycle, Miss Schels believes, until more refineries and storage tanks are built, and more fields developed—a process that can take years. Traders in the futures market also seem to believe that the oil price will rise again. Oil for delivery in December 2007, for example, cost $68 on September 27th. The price is more than $60 for all months until December 2011.
Those bets could sour, however, if the American economy slows, as many suspect it is already doing. That would dent demand for oil, both from America itself and from countries that supply it with imports, such as China. Economists at HSBC, who expect a sharp American slowdown in 2007, now think Asian GDP growth will be 5.8% in 2007, against the consensus forecast of 6.3%.
On the other hand, cheaper oil might help to mitigate any slowdown, in several ways. It would boost firms hit by higher energy prices, such as the struggling manufacturers of gas-guzzling cars. And it will relieve the pressure on consumers, at a time when many are worried that a stalling housing market may weigh on their spending. Economists at Morgan Stanley estimate that the fall in petrol prices from over $3 to $2.50 a gallon (the average is now $2.42) will alone have added some $78 billion to American purchasing power. Consumer confidence numbers, released on September 26th, were unexpectedly strong.
Above all, cheaper oil would ease concerns about inflation, and so reduce the need for central bankers to increase interest rates. American inflation slowed in August, thanks in part to smaller increases in the cost of energy and transport. That"s good news, except that it might simply prompt Americans to drive more.
问答题Paraphrase the sentence "Facing this prospect, we ought m align rhetoric and reality". (Para. 7) And explain how to do that.
问答题It took nearly eight years for the new heart drug BiDil to win approval from the Food and Drug Administration—and it won that approval only after its maker, a small company called NitroMed, repositioned it as a treatment earmarked for African Americans. But if NitroMed thought getting BiDil past the FDA was hard, wait until it tries marketing the drug to its target group. Even during its clinical trials, BiDil ran into resistance. Says Dr. Theodore Addai of Nashville's Meharry Medical College, who had to enlist black patients for a 2001 trial: "We had to try to persuade them that this was not another Tuskegee. " He's referring to the infamous Tuskegee experiment, conducted by the U. S. government from the 1930s to the early '70s, during which doctors denied nearly 400 black men in Alabama treatment for syphilis in order to observe the disease's long-term effects. The scars left by Tuskegee are slow to heal in the African-American community, and many blacks remain deeply suspicious of anything that approaches the emotionally charged intersection of race and medicine. The AIDS epidemic is a prime example. According to the Centers for Disease Control, blacks account for 50% of new HIV and AIDS cases in the U. S., although they represent only 13% of the population. African-American women are especially at risk; their annual AIDS case rate is 25 times that of white women. Citing those statistics, significant numbers of black Americans subscribe to various AIDS conspiracy theories. According to a poll conducted for the Rand Corp. last January, 53% of black Americans surveyed believe there is a cure for AIDS that is being withheld from the poor, and 15% believe the disease was created by the government in order to control the black population. Phil Wilson, director of the Black AIDS Institute, says such attitudes are hampering his work with antiretroviral drugs, "The most common thing we hear with AIDS drugs is, 'Oh, they're going to experiment on you,'" he says. "The most cited example is the Tuskegee trials, even though most of us don't even know what Tuskegee was." Tuskegee aside, the discrepancies in medical care between blacks and whites in the U. S. are real and persistent and not explained by differences in economic status alone. In March 2002 a study by the Institute of Medicine at the National Academy Of Sciences found that even after controlling for such factors as income and insurance coverage, minorities in the U. S. routinely received lower-quality health care than whites. Matters were not improved in the early '90s when some Governors and state officials tried to mandate the use of a newly approved five-year birth control device called Norplant as a way of curbing teenage pregnancy and reducing welfare costs, a campaign that instantly acquired racial overtones. In that context, it's not surprising that the idea behind BiDil—the first drug approved for a specific race—has been controversial from the start. The drug is actually a combination of two older, generic medicines. When it was first tested on the general population as a treatment for congestive heart failure—a gradual weakening of the heart-the FDA ruled that the results were not statistically significant. It was only when the drug was retested on patients who identified themselves as African Americans that tangible benefits emerged: a 43% reduction in the death rate and a 39% reduction in hospitalizations. Critics point out that while the trials showed that BiDil saved lives, they failed to show whether the drug worked better in blacks than in other groups or that it worked only in blacks. "Race is a placeholder for something else," says Dr. Clyde Yancy, a cardiologist at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center and a BiDil investigator. "And that's probably a mix of biomarkers, demographics and genes." NitroMed declined to comment on its marketing strategy, but some doctors voiced concern that the company remains sensitive to African-American fears. "I hope they market BiDil with great caution and care," says Gary Puckrein, executive director of the National Minority Health Month foundation. "This really isn't a race drug but a drug that works in specific populations for reasons we don't yet understand./
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问答题Companies say it"s nice for business travelers to have a desk, fax machine and coffee maker in their hotel rooms. But don"t make them pay extra for it. An informal USA TODAT survey of 152 corporate-travel managers finds 68% would not pay a premium for so-called business-class rooms that hotel chains are creating to attract business travelers. The rooms typically are equipped with a large desk, better fighting, fax machine, data ports for laptops and other features that can turn a hotel room into a mini-office. Rates are often $ 20 higher than for regular rooms.
As companies work harder to trim travel budgets, many managers say the amenities aren"t worth the money.
"I think I travel as much as anyone in this company, but as far as what I need to do on the road is concerned, it isn"t worth another $ 30," says Mike Caravello, travel manager for American Family, an insurance company.
Hotel chain after hotel chain has launched some version of the business-class room since Radisson introduced its Business Class concept several years ago. The business-class trend caught fire soon after the recession ended as hotel marketers focused on companies" desire to make employees more efficient and productive on business trips.
In fact, many hoteliers say the rooms are as popular as ever with travelers. ITT Sheraton, which charges a $15 premium for its business rooms, says research shows travelers expect to pay $ 40 more for them.
"If I"m a traveler and I have to do a lot more on the road for me to be more productive, it may be worthwhile for me to expense it against my expense account. And if I can prove to my employer that I am more productive, then it was a good move," says Bob Dirks, Hilton"s senior vice president of marketing.
Still, Dirks concedes that for business-class rooms to be successful, hoteliers will have to strike the right price chord with corporate clients. That"s why Hilton is testing its Smart Desk concept, which has a portable desk, better lighting and data ports, at nightly premiums of $ 20 to $ 35 a night. "Research will determine whether companies are entirely right or entirely wrong," he says. Hyatt charges an extra $15 per night for its Business Plan room, which comes with a continental breakfast, fax machine, 24-hour access to printers, photocopying machines, office supplies, a coffee maker, ironing board, free newspapers, complimentary local calls and no access charges for 800 numbers and credit-card calls.
Radisson"s Business Class rooms are in 216 hotels in 29 countries. The rooms come with complimentary newspapers, free in-room movies, free phone access, no fax surcharges, data ports and an in-room coffee maker. The chain booked more than 180,000 Business Class rooms in 1995, spokeswoman Karen Waters says.
Hyatt officials say its Business Plan also has been a hit with travelers. "Business Plan has been so successful that we plan to increase our inventory," says Don Henderson, general manager of the Hyatt Regency Houston.
Marriott plans to expand its "Room that works" concept to 20% of its rooms by Dec. 31.
Travelers do manage to get into business rooms even if the premium isn"t included in the corporate travel policy. That"s because hotels really pitch the rooms when travelers check in, says hotel consultant Bjorn Hanson, of Coopers & Lybrand.
"When someone arrives at the hotel desk, they"ll say they have the corporate rate but that they can also get a free breakfast and newspaper and other perks for an additional $15 a night," he says.
Linda Mancini, national sales manager for Ritten-house in San Jose, Calif, uses upgrades she earns as a reward for frequent stays to move up to business-class rooms. Occasionally, she"ll pay the extra premium for the room, which she likes for the convenience. "I"ve found that most of those rooms aren"t that expensive," she says. "If you"re there one night, it"s no big deal. But if you"re there three or four nights, it adds up. "
And using the fax machine can be very expensive. "You can end up paying a ton to fax anything. I had a fax bill that totaled $ 70 because of surcharges. I ended up talking to the manager and I got it reversed," Mancini says.
Mancini also makes a point that employers won"t want to hear. "There"re a lot of people who don"t work once they get in the room. They use it so sleep and watch TV," she says.
DuPont travel manager Joyce Bembry says hotels who want business travelers shouldn"t charge extra. "If they are going to cater to the business traveler, these are the things they are going to need," she says. "I think it"s going to be a way of life and a way of doing business. It will be just a room. "
问答题 Government is not made in virtue of natural rights, which may
and do exist in total independence of it; and exist in much greater clearness,
and in a much greater degree of abstract perfection; but their abstract
perfection is their practical defect. By having a right to everything, men want
everything. Government is a contrivance of human wisdom to provide for human
wants. Men have a right that these wants should be provided for by this wisdom.
Among these wants to be reckoned is the want, out of civil society, of a
sufficient restraint upon their passions. Society requires not only that the
passions of individuals should be subjected, but that even in the mass and body,
as well as in the individuals, the inclinations of men should frequently be
thwarted, their will controlled, and their passions brought into subjection.
This can only be done by a power out of themselves: and not, in the exercise of
its function, subject to that will and those passions which it is its office to
bridle and subdue. In this sense, the restraints on men, as well as their
liberties, are to be reckoned among their rights. But as the liberties and the
restrictions vary with times and circumstances, and admit to infinite
modifications, they cannot be settled upon by any abstract rule; and nothing is
so foolish as to discuss them upon that principle. The moment
you abate anything from the full rights of men, each to govern himself, and
suffer any artificial, positive limitation upon those rights, from that moment
the whole organization of government becomes a consideration of convenience.
This it is which makes the constitution of a state, and the due distribution of
its powers, a matter of the most delicate and complicated skill. It requires a
deep knowledge of human nature and human necessities, and of the things which
facilitate or obstruct the various ends, which are to be pursued by the
mechanism of civil institutions. The state is to have recruits to its strength,
and remedies to its distempers. What is the use of discussing a man's abstract
right to food or medicine? The question is upon the method of procuring and
administering them. In that deliberation, I shall always advise to call in the
aid of the farmer and the physician, rather than the professor of
metaphysics.
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问答题Despite wars, famines, and epidemics, Earth"s population is booming ahead to new records—with no end in sight.
Every day, the world adds enough people to populate a medium-sized city in the US. In one month, the number of new-world citizens equals the population of New York City.
Every year, there are 90 million more mouths to feed, more than the total population of Germany.
Several factors are propelling this rapid growth, including an element that is often overlooked: the huge number of teenagers who are becoming mothers, particularly in the countries of sub-Saharan Africa.
In four African nations—Niger, Mali, Sierra Leone, and Ivory Coast—1 out of every 5 adolescent females of childbearing age has a baby annually.
The US Bureau of the Census says this high rate of motherhood among teens has helped to maintain the high pace of births across most of the African continent. By starting a family early, a typical woman in Somalia, for instance, has seven children during her lifetime. Equally large-families are the rule in Zambia, Zaire, Uganda, Mauritania, Mali, Malawi, and Ethiopia.
The current record-holder for fertility is strife: torn Rwanda, where a typical mother has at least eight or nine children. While population experts often focus on Africa"s problems, analysts note that teenage mothers are also far more prevalent in the United States than in France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, or Britain.
This issue—"babies having babies"—has recently gained prominence in the US. Teenaged motherhood in the US has fueled an expansion of the state-federal welfare system and brought cries for welfare reform from lawmakers.
With its high rate of teen births, the US now ranks alongside Indonesia and parts of South America, and only modesty ahead of Mexico, India, and Pakistan.
Overall, the fertility rate among Americans remains relatively low at 2.1 births per woman—about the replacement level. Although the US population is expected to climb steadily, from 260 million today to 323 million by 2020, most of that growth will come from immigration.
The Census Bureau estimates that in Haiti, where thousands of citizens are trying to flee to the US because of military oppression and poverty AIDS will cut the annual growth rate during the next 25 years from 2.1 percent to 1.3 percent.
The decline in growth is even sharper in the Central African Republic, where rates will dip from 2.4 percent to 0.7 percent. In Thailand, which already had low birth rates, AIDS will drive population downward to 0.8 percent a year.
In the 16 countries that are hit hardest, AIDS will lower populations by 121 million over expected projections by 2020. In Africa, the impact of AIDS is so great that trends toward longer fife spans during the past 40 years are being reversed. Some nations will suffer declines in average life spans of 10 to 30 years compared with expected life spans without AIDS.
In the US, where AIDS is also a substantial problem, the impact will be lower because the disease is mostly limited to homosexuals and drug users, says Peter Way, a Census Bureau researcher. In many African nations, AIDS is prevalent among the heterosexual population, which sharply boosts infant mortality.
A compelling chapter in the research deals with aging. Today the median age in developed countries is 35, and in developing nations is only 23. By 2020, the corresponding figures will be 42 and 28.
Today there are fewer adults over 60 (525 million) than children under 5 (636 million). As the world population ages, by 2020, the number over 60 will be more than 1 billion, while those under 5 will total 717 million.
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In this part of the test, you will hear 5 sentences in English. You will hear the sentences ONLY ONCE. After you have heard each sentence, translate it into Chinese and write your version in the corresponding space in your ANSWER BOOKLET.
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问答题A proposal to change long-standing federal policy and deny citizenship to babies born to illegal immigrants on U.S. soil ran aground this month in Congress, but it is sure to resurface-kindling bitter debate even if it fails to become law.
At issue is "birthright citizenship" —provided for since the Constitution"s 14th Amendment was ratified in 1868. Section 1 of that amendment, drafted with freed slaves in mind, says: "All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States."
Some conservatives in Congress, as well as advocacy groups seeking to crack down on illegal immigration, say the amendment has been misapplied over the years, that it was never intended to grant citizenship automatically to babies of illegal immigrants. Thus they contend that federal legislation, rather than a difficult-to-achieve constitutional amendment, would be sufficient to end birthright citizenship.
"Most Americans feel it doesn"t make any sense for people to come into the country illegally, give birth and have a new U.S. citizen," said the spokesman of the federation of American immigration reform. "But the advocates for illegal immigrants will make a fuss; they"ll claim you"re punishing the children, and I suspect the leadership doesn"t want to deal with that."
问答题If one believed that the universe had a beginning, the obvious question was: What happened before the beginning? What was God doing before He made the world? Was He preparing Hell for people who asked such questions? The problem of whether or not the universe had a beginning was a great concern to the German philosopher, Immanuel Kant. He felt there were logical contradictions, or Antinomies, either way. If the universe had a beginning, why did it wait an infinite time before it began? He called that file thesis. On the other hand, if the universe had existed forever, why did it take an infinite time to reach the present stage? He called that the antithesis. Both the thesis, and the antithesis, depended on Kant's assumption, along with almost everyone else, that time was Absolute. That is to say, it went from the infinite past, to the infinite future, independently of any universe that might or might not exist in this background.
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问答题我国政府强化了对外贸的控管,强化了商会这类中介机构的服务与协调功能。我们希望继续加强外贸体制的改革,使之逐渐走向竞争,并受到诸如关税、汇率和利率等法律和经济手段的制约。所有这些都应有助于加速中国外贸的国际化进程,为宏观经贸局面的形成创造一个较好的环境,通过促进商贸业、制造业、农业、技术产业和银行之间更为密切的合作,我们能够为国际市场提供更多、更好的出口产品。在这种情况下,中国自然会成为一个大市场。
