摘要
目的分析2013—2018年南宁市报告的食源性疾病发病特征和规律,并预测报告发病趋势,为防控决策和政府投入提供针对性建议。方法分析国家食源性监测报告系统(CFSA)2013—2018年食源性疾病数据,利用@risk软件的决策工具套件中StatTools工具开展时间序列分析和趋势预测。结果2013—2018年共报告食源性疾病15992例,总年均报告发病率为0.35‰;其中城区为0.36‰,较县区高(χ^2=172.35,P<0.05);5月份起报告发病数上升,7—10月发病数较多;农民发病为主,其次为散居儿童;1~3和20~50岁青壮年发病人数分别占18.07%和43.58%;流动人口异地进食后在本地发病的占3.67%。家庭自制食品是致病主要来源,散装食品风险较高,以肉及肉制品、水果和粮食及其制品为主;致病菌总检出率为11.74%,沙门菌最高,诺如病毒次之。预计2019年11月—2020年4月将报告发病1693例。结论2013—2018年南宁市食源性疾病报告总体呈持续上升发展,应持续加强食源性疾病监测网站建设,监督基层医疗机构报告病例,以更好的保障人民健康。
Objective To analyze the characteristics and regularity of foodborne diseases reported in Nanning City from 2013-2018,and provide targeted suggestions for prevention and control decisions and government investment.Methods The data of foodborne diseases from 2013-2018 in the China national center for food safety risk assessment(CFSA)were analyzed,and StatTools in DecisionTools Suite of@risk software was used to carry out the time series analysis and trend prediction.Results Totally 15992 cases of foodborne diseases were reported from 2013-2018,with an average annual incidence rate of 0.35‰,and the average annual reported incidence rate in urban areas was 0.36‰,which was higher than that in counties(χ~2=172.35,P<0.05).The reported cases has increased since May,reached the peak in July to October.Most of cases were farmers,followed by scattered children.The patients aged 1-3 and 20-50 years old accounted for 18.07%and 43.58%respectively.The cases of floating population occurred the diseases in Nanning City after eating at other places accounted for 3.67%.Homemade food is the main source of disease,and bulk food showed the higher risk.Meat and meat products,fruit and grain and their products were the main pathogenic food.The total detection rate of pathogenic bacteria was 11.74%,mainly Salmonella,followed by norovirus.A total of1693 cases were expected to be reported between November 2019 and April 2020.Conclusion The report of foodborne diseases in Nanning City from 2013-2018 is on the rise.It is necessary to continue to strengthen the construction of foodborne disease surveillance website and supervise the reporting of cases by primary medical institutions,so as to better protect people’s health.
作者
张静
马玲玲
ZHANG Jing;MA Ling-ling(Food Safety Surveillance Department,Nanning Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanning Guangxi,530021,China)
出处
《职业与健康》
CAS
2020年第20期2793-2796,共4页
Occupation and Health
基金
广西卫健委自筹基金科研项目(Z2014535)
关键词
食源性疾病
监测
预测
Foodborne Diseases
Monitoring
Prediction
