摘要
本研究采取事件分析方法和向量自回归(VAR)模型等方法,实证分析2012年金风科技组织管理模式变革对其上市公司股价的影响及其传导路径。实证发现:(1)短期内,公司股价的异常收益和累积异常收益均不显著,且累积异常收益连续为负值,说明短期内组织管理模式变革没有对公司价值和股价产生利好;(2)中长期看(2年左右),公司股价的累积异常收益为正,表明中长期组织管理模式变革对该公司价值产生积极影响,尤其是组织管理模式变革后公司发展显著地优于所属行业的平均发展水平。进一步地,M-估计稳健回归和VAR模型结果表明,营业收入和经营成本明显地影响该公司股价异常收益,这意味着组织管理模式变革通过提高营业收入和降低公司成本实现了公司价值提升。
This paper examines the effect and transmission channels of the organization change in Goldwind Sci&Tech on the stock returns by using the event study method and VAR model.First,the empirical results show that the abnormal returns(AR)and the cumulative abnormal returns(CAR)in the short run are not significant,indicating that the organization change has no significant effect on the returns of Goldwind Sci&Tech.Second,and more interestingly,the CAR in the long run is positive and sometimes becomes significant,implying that the organization change has a positive effect on the development of Goldwind Sci&Tech.Particularly,it is reported that the development of Goldwind Sci&Tech is significantly higher than the industry level,indicating the important role of the organization change.Finally,the operating income has a positive effect on AR,and the operating expenditure has a negative effect,indicating that the operating income and expenditure are two important channels affecting the returns.
作者
李飞
陆凤彬
Li Fei;Lu Fengbin(School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;Xinjiang Goldwind Sci&Tech Co.,Ltd.,Urumqi 100176;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190)
出处
《管理评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第4期339-352,共14页
Management Review
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71871213)
国家数学与交叉科学中心、中国科学院预测科学研究中心课题。
