摘要
旨在分析鲁西南地区的旱涝时空分布特征。笔者利用鲁西南地区9个县区1971—2015年的逐月降水资料,采用不同时间尺度的标准化降水指数(SPI)分析旱涝变化特征。结果表明:鲁西南地区20世纪70年代以雨涝为主,80年代干旱加剧,90年代又转为雨涝,21世纪00年代干旱持续减弱,雨涝加剧;旱涝的季节变化呈现旱涝交替发生的特点,其中夏季雨涝发生较为频繁,春夏秋季的SPI线性变化趋势较为平稳,无明显的干旱或雨涝趋势,冬季雨涝呈微弱增多趋势,干旱减少,但变化趋势不明显;在旱涝的空间分布上,全区3个区域的旱涝变化趋势基本一致,整体均呈微弱的雨涝化趋势,但变化趋势未达显著水平;21世纪初期的旱涝变率最大,20世纪70年代—90年代前期的旱涝变率无明显变化,90年代后期至21世纪初期的旱涝变率呈现出明显的干湿变化。鲁西南地区的旱涝变化具有明显的阶段性,旱涝发生极为频繁,整体呈现出涝—旱—涝的变化过程。
The paper aims to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of drought-flood in southwest Shandong.Based on the monthly precipitation data of 9 counties in the region from 1971 to 2015,we analyzed the variation characteristics of drought-flood by using the standardized precipitation index with different time scales.The results showed that:the flood was more frequent in the 1970 s,drought increased in the 1980 s,while it turned into flood in the 1990 s,and drought continued to weaken,flood increased in the2000 s;the characteristics of seasonal changes all showed drought and flood occurred alternately while the flood occurred more frequently in summer,the linear trend of SPI in spring,summer,autumn were relatively stable,it had no obvious change trend,the flood in winter showed a slightly increasing trend while drought decreased with no obvious change trend;the trend of drought-flood in 3 areas were basically identical,showing an overall watering trend which did not reach the significant level;the rate of drought-flood was relatively stable from1970 s to the early 1990 s while was the maximum in the early 21 stcentury,and there was obvious dry-wet change from the late 1990 s to the early 21 stcentury.In southwest Shandong,the change of drought-flood has obvious stages and the occurrence is extremely frequent,and the whole process is flood-drought-flood.
作者
李瑞英
任崇勇
Li Ruiying;Ren Chongyong(Heze Meteorological Bureau,Heze Shandong 274000)
出处
《中国农学通报》
2020年第4期95-100,共6页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
山东省气象局青年基金项目“菏泽牡丹气候适宜性评价分析”(2016SDQN20).
关键词
旱涝
演变
SPI
交替
鲁西南
时空分布
drought-flood
evolution
standardized precipitation index
alternate
southwest Shandong
spatial and temporal distribution
