摘要
目的建立食源性疾病发病的季节自回归滑动平均模型(seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average,SARIMA)模型,并对验证集进行预测。方法本研究使用R 4.0对重庆市南岸区2016年1月—2020年6月食源性疾病罹患率进行SARIMA模型拟合。结果该食源性疾病的流行高峰在夏秋季节(6、7、9、10、11月),其最佳预测模型为SARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,0),且该模型在预测2020年6—12月罹患率的RMSE、MAPE值分别为20.8048,17.1747%,预测效果较好。结论SARIMA模型在预测重庆市地区食源性疾病的发病和流行趋势上有一定的效果,并能对未来的罹患率进行估计,可为今后的食源性疾病的防控工作提供参考。
Objective To construct a seasonal autoregressive moving average(SARIMA)model and to validate its efficiency in forecasting food-borne disease activity in Chongqing.Methods We used R software to test the fitting capacity of SARIMA model for the incidence of food-borne diseases in Nan′an District of Chongqing from January 2016 to June 2020.Results The seasonal peaks of food-borne diseases were in summer and autumn(June,July,September,October and November),and the best prediction model was SARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,0).The RMSE score and MAPE score of this model in predicting the incidence of food-borne diseases from June 2020 to December 2020 were 20.8048 and 17.1747%.Conclusions SARIMA model has a potential capacity to forecast the incidence and epidemic trend of food-borne infectious diseases in Chongqing,which may provide reference for the prevention and control of food-borne diseases in the future.
作者
邓雯文
曾德唯
吴小花
田渝
甘忠志
叶孟良
DENG Wen-wen;ZENG De-wei;WU Xiao-hua;TIAN Yu;GAN Zhong-zhi;YE Meng-liang(Nan'an District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chongqing 400066,China;不详)
出处
《中国预防医学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第3期197-202,共6页
Chinese Preventive Medicine
基金
重庆市2020年科卫联合医学科研项目(2020FYYX215,2020MSXM018)
重庆市2021年科卫联合医学科研项目(2021MSXM264)
重庆市南岸区科卫联合医学科研项目(2019-16)
