摘要
目的探讨武汉市大气污染物浓度对医院儿童呼吸系统疾病门诊量的影响。方法2013-2016年逐日空气污染数据、气象资料和儿科门诊量资料分别来源于武汉市环保局、武汉市气象局和武汉市两所综合医院。采用时间序列的半参数广义相加模型,在控制长期效应、季节趋势、星期几效应、节假日及气象因素的影响后,分析PM10、PM2.5、SO2、NO2等与儿童呼吸系统门诊量的暴露反应关系及滞后效应。结果2013年至2016年武汉市两所综合医院呼吸系统门诊量252999人次,平均173人次/d。大气污染物PM10、PM2.5、SO2、NO2平均浓度分别为108.35μg/m3、75.82μg/m3、20.63μg/m3和53.29μg/m3,其浓度与儿童呼吸系统门诊量存在关联,且有滞后效应。PM2.5浓度升高10μg/m3时,当天PM2.5浓度的影响效应最强,呼吸系统疾病相对危险度为1.032(95%CI:1.016~1.048);当PM10、SO2和NO2浓度升高10μg/m3时,均在滞后3d时健康效应最强,其相对危险度分别为1.041(95%CI:1.026~1.056)、1.055(95%CI:1.039~1.072)、1.067(95%CI:1.050~1.084)。结论2013年至2016年大气污染对武汉市儿童门诊量有显著影响,污染物浓度的升高,会导致儿童呼吸系统门诊量就诊人数的增加。
Objective To discuss the impact of air pollutant on daily outpatient visits of children with respiratory diseases in Wuhan.Methods The daily meteorological records,air pollution data and daily outpatient visits of children with respiratory diseases were obtained from Meteorological Bureau,Environmental Protection Agency and 2 hospitals in Wuhan.The associations of air PM10,PM2.5,SO2,NO2 concentration with daily outpatient visits of children with respiratory diseases and the leg effect were assessed through a time series analysis using a semiparametric generalized additive model(GAM)based on Poisson distribution under the control of long-term effects,season trends,day of week,holiday and meteorological factors.Results From 2013 to 2016,the total outpatient visit of children for respiratory diseases were 252999 person-times,with a daily average of 173 person-times.The average concentrations of PM10,PM2.5,SO2 and NO2 in Wuhan during study period were 108.35 ug/m3,75.82μg/m3,20.63μg/m3 and 53.29μg/m3,respectively,which were correlated with the outpatient visits of children for respiratory diseases,and there was an obvious lag effect.When the concentration of PM2.5 increased by 10μg/m3,the effect of PM2.5 was the strongest on the same day,the relative rate(RR)of respiratory disease was 1.032(95%CI:1.016-1.048).When the concentrations of PM10,SO2 and NO2 increased by 10μg/m3,the lag effect was the strongest after 3 days,and the RRs were 1.04(95%CI:1.026-1.056),1.055(95%CI:1.039-1.072)and 1.067(95%CI:1.050-1.084),respectively.Conclusions Air pollution has a significant impact on outpatient numbers of children with respiratory diseases in Wuhan from 2013 to 2016,and the elevation of pollutant level can lead to the increase of outpatient visits of children for respiratory diseases.
作者
严亚琼
赵原原
杨念念
代娟
程瑶
龚洁
YAN Ya-qiong;ZHAO Yuan-yuan;YANG Nian-nian;DAI Juan;CHENG Yao;GONG Jie(Wuhan Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Wuhan,Hubei 430015,China;Tongii Medical Couege Huazhong Unirersity of Scienceand Techhology Hobei Wuhan,430030)
出处
《中国预防医学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
2020年第9期969-973,共5页
Chinese Preventive Medicine
基金
武汉市科技基金资助项目(2015061701011631)
武汉市卫计委公共卫生科研项目(WG13A02)
关键词
大气污染物
儿童
呼吸系统疾病
门诊量
广义相加模型
Air pollution
Children
Respiratory disease
Outpatient numbers
Generalized addictive model
