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中国城乡2003-2017年糖尿病死亡趋势的JoinPoint回归分析 被引量:18

JoinPoint regression analysis on death trends of patients with diabetes in urban and rural areas of China in 2003-2017
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摘要 目的描述分析中国城乡糖尿病标化死亡率及年龄别死亡率的时间趋势特征。方法收集中国城乡2003-2017年《中国卫生和计划生育统计年鉴》及《中国人口和就业统计年鉴》20~79岁年龄组的糖尿病死亡率数据和人口数据,以2010年人口普查数据作为标准人口计算中国城乡20~79岁糖尿病标化死亡率。采用JoinPoint回归分析中国城乡糖尿病标化死亡率及年龄别死亡率的时间趋势。结果城市糖尿病标化死亡率在2009-2013年间以5.7%的年变化百分率下降(P=0.000)。农村糖尿病标化死亡率在2003-2017年间以年变化百分率和年平均变化百分率2.2%的速度上升(P=0.000)。2003-2017年间城市糖尿病年龄别死亡率:25~29岁组糖尿病死亡率呈现上升趋势(P=0.000)、35~49岁和55~59岁各年龄组糖尿病死亡率呈下降趋势(P=0.000);50~54岁年龄组在2003-2017年间的年平均变化百分率呈现快速上升趋势(P=0.000);70~74岁年龄组糖尿病死亡率在2003-2013年间的年变化百分率呈现上升趋势(P=0.000);75~79岁年龄组在2003-2007年间的年变化百分率呈现快速上升趋势(P=0.000)。农村糖尿病年龄别死亡率:35~39岁组糖尿病死亡率呈现下降趋势(P=0.000)、60~64岁、65~79岁各年龄组糖尿病死亡率在2003-2017年间的年变化百分率和年平均变化百分率分别呈现连续上升趋势(P=0.000),30~34岁和50~54岁糖尿病死亡率的年变化百分率分别在2008-2017年间和2012-2017年间呈现快速上升趋势(P=0.000)。结论根据JoinPoint回归分析得出,无论中国城市还是农村糖尿病的死亡风险都逐渐趋于年轻化。因此应该加强城市>30岁和农村>60岁高危人群的糖尿病健康教育宣传及防控防治工作。 Objective To describe the time trend characteristics of standardized mortality and age-specific mortality of patients with diabetes in urban and rural areas of China.Methods Data of mortality of patients with diabetes aged 20-79 years and population data in urban and rural areas of China during 2003 and 2017 were collected from Healthy China yearbook and China population and employment statistics yearbook,the standardized mortality was calculated based on the standard population of 2010 census data.JoinPoint regression model was used to analyze the time trend of standardized mortality and age-specific mortality of patients with diabetes in urban and rural areas of China.Results The standardized mortality rate of urban diabetes patients decreased annually by 5.7%from the year of 2009 to 2013(P=0.000),while the standardized mortality rate of rural diabetes cases increased annually by 2.2%between 2003 and 2017(P=0.000).During 2003 and 2017,the mortality rates in age groups of 25-29 and 35-49 showed upward trends while it showed downward trend in the age group of 55-59.The annual percent change increased rapidly in the age group of 50-54(P=0.000)from 3003 to 2017 and in the age group of 75-79 from 2003 to 2007(P=0.000).For patients from rural areas of China,during 2003 and 2017,the annual percent change and the mean annual percent change of mortality rate showed downward trend and then upward trend in the age group of 35-39,60-64 and 65-79 years(P=0.000),while the rates rapidly increased in the age group of 30-34 in 2008-2017 and in the age group of 50-54 in 2012-2017(P=0.000).Conclusions Based upon our JoinPoint regression analysis,more younger patients die from diabetes in both urban and rural areas of China.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen the health education especially among high risk population to prevent diabetes.
作者 桑祎莹 易静 汪洋 SANG Yi-ying;YI Jing;WANG Yang(Chongqing Center for Health Statistics and Information,Chongqing 401120,China)
出处 《中国预防医学杂志》 CAS CSCD 2020年第7期744-748,共5页 Chinese Preventive Medicine
基金 重庆市教育委员会基金资助项目(2014kxkt04)
关键词 糖尿病 死亡率 JoinPoint回归模型 Diabetes Mortality rate JoinPoint regression model
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