摘要
为准确、有效地评价铁路旅客运输安全,构建铁路旅客运输安全评价体系,用层次分析法(AHP)确定主观权重,用熵值法确定客观权重,将主客观权重组合,并采用博弈论理论计算综合权重,确定各影响因素的权重占比,利用云模型评价铁路旅客运输安全。以某火车站S为例,根据S站的实际情况量化指标,利用云模型评价。研究结果表明:影响铁路旅客运输安全的权重占比较大的因素有设备设计安全性及使用安全性、自然环境及社会治安等因素,需采取相应的措施防患于未然;同时验证了组合赋权云模型在铁路旅客运输安全评价中的可行性。
In order to accurately and effectively evaluate the safety of railway passenger transportation,railway passenger transportation safety evaluation system was constructed.Subjective weight was determined by AHP,objective weight was determined by the entropy method,the subjective and objective weights were combined,and game theory was used to calculate the comprehensive weight,the weight proportion of each influencing factor was determined,and the cloud model was used to evaluate railway passenger transportation safety.Take a train station S as an example,according to the actual situation of S station quantization index,the cloud model was used to evaluate it.The research results show that the factors that affect the safety of railway passenger transportation account for a relatively large proportion of factors such as the safety of equipment design and use,the harsh natural environment and social security,and corresponding measures need to be taken to prevent problems before they occur.At the same time,the feasibility of the combined weighting cloud model in the safety evaluation of railway passenger transportation is verified.
作者
周雪
左忠义
程伟
ZHOU Xue;ZUO Zhongyi;CHENG Wei(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Dalian Jiaotong University,Dalian Liaoning 116028,China;Safety Technology Center,National Railway Administration,Beijing 100160,China)
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第S01期158-164,共7页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
辽宁省教育厅高等学校科学研究计划项目(JDL2017O34)
辽宁省轨道交通装备技术项目(2018yb016)
关键词
组合赋权
云模型
铁路旅客运输
安全评价
层次分析法(AHP)
combination weighting
cloud model
railway passenger transportation
safety evaluation
analytic hierarchy process(AHP)
