摘要
目的了解内江市2014-2018年传染病自动预警系统运行现状,为提高传染病监测预警能力提供依据。方法采用流行病学方法对内江市2014-2018年传染病自动预警信息进行统计分析。结果2014-2018年传染病自动预警系统共发出预警信号3262条,预警信号疑似率为0.37%;阳性率为0.15%;灵敏度为100.00%。预警信号季节分布呈单峰型,高峰在5~7月。预警信息涉及病种22种,前5位病种依次为其它感染性腹泻病、手足口病、麻疹、流行性腮腺炎和痢疾,占全部预警信号数的86.73%。预警信号响应率为100.00%,响应时间中位数为1.31 h,24 h内响应率为98.04%。24 h内响应率总体呈上升趋势,差异有统计学意义(F=128.112,P<0.05)。结论内江市传染病自动预警系统整体运行良好,预警灵敏度高,但存在预警信号阳性率低等问题,还需合理设置不同病种预警模式和阈值,提高暴发预警的整体效果。
Objective To get an insight into the current status of the automatic early warning system for infectious diseases in Neijiang City from 2014 to 2018,and to provide a basis for improving the ability of monitoring and early warning of infectious disease.Methods Epidemiological methods were used to analyze the automatic early warning information of infectious diseases in Neijiang City from 2014 to 2018.Results From 2014 to 2018,the automatic early warning information system for infectious diseases issued a total of 3262 warning signals,with a suspected rate of 0.37%.The positive rate was 0.15%,and the sensitivity was 100.00%.The seasonal distribution of early warning signals was unimodal,with peaks ranging from May to July.The warning information covered 22 categories of diseases,and the top 5 diseases were followed by other infectious diarrhea diseases,hand-foot-mouth disease,measles,mumps and dysentery,accounting for 86.73%of the total warning signals.The response rate of warning signals was 100.00%.The median response time was 1.31 h,and the response rate within 24 h was 98.04%.The response rate showed an upward trend within 24 h,with statistically significant difference(F=128.112,P<0.05).Conclusion The automatic early warning information system for infectious disease in Neijiang City has a good overall operation and high early warning sensitivity,but there are some problems such as low positive rate of early warning signals.Therefore,it is necessary to set reasonable early warning modes and thresholds for different diseases to improve the overall effect of outbreak warning.
作者
于雪岚
曾佳芮
徐勇
刘鹃
谭爱
YU Xuelan;ZENG Jiarui;XU Yong;LIU Juan;TAN Ai(Neijiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Sichuan641100,China)
出处
《医学动物防制》
2020年第3期230-233,共4页
Journal of Medical Pest Control
基金
四川省卫生和计划生育委员会2018年疾病预防控制省组补助资金项目(内卫计办发[2018]392号).
关键词
传染病
自动预警
分析
Infectious disease
Automatic warning
Analysis
