摘要
降雨条件下边坡所处的滑坡风险状态与土体参数空间分布密切相关,为高效评估降雨诱发滑坡所处的风险等级,应用Python计算平台进行编码,采用修正Green-Ampt入渗模型推导出无限长边坡(infinite slope)的极限状态函数,结合岩土参数随机场理论及一阶可靠度分析方法,得到了降雨诱发滑坡的概率分析结果,并建立了算例边坡的易损性曲线。研究结果表明:相比于传统的边坡稳定性定值分析方法,可靠度分析结果可以较为全面地反映边坡在不同降雨强度以及降雨持时条件下所处的风险状态;当降雨强度超过一定等级后,在相同的降雨持时条件下其强度大小对边坡失效概率的影响不大;在特定研究区域内,当降雨强度已知时,可以通过易损性明确边坡在容许风险等级下的失效时间,为滑坡防控领域的防灾减灾工作提供重要参考。
The risk status of a slope under rainfall conditions is closely related to the spatial variability of soil parameters.In order to efficiently evaluate the risk level of rainfall-induced landslides,this paper uses the modified Green-Ampt infiltration model combined with the infinite slope model to establish the limit state function,and combines the first-order reliability method(FORM)with the random field theory to study the probabilistic stability subjected to uncertain infiltration parameters with spatial variability.These calculation procedures are systematically realized in the Python platform.Finally,we make a probabilistic analysis of rainfall-induced landslides and establish a fragility curve of the slope in the case area.The research results show that:compared with traditional stability analysis methods,probabilistic analysis methods can more comprehensively reflect the risk status of slopes under different rainfall intensities and rainfall durations.When the rainfall intensity exceeds a certain level,the rainfall has little effect on the slope failure probability under the same rainfall duration.In a specific study area,when the rainfall intensity is known,the fragility curves can be used to clarify the failure time of the slope under allowable risk level and can provide an important reference for the disaster prevention and mitigation work for relevant departments.
作者
廖文旺
姬建
张童
吴志军
张洁
LIAO Wen-wang;JI Jian;ZHANG Tong;WU Zhi-jun;ZHANG Jie(College of Civil and Transportation Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210098,China;College of Civil Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan,Hubei 430072,China;College of Civil Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China)
出处
《岩土力学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第S01期623-632,共10页
Rock and Soil Mechanics
基金
国家自然科学基金委员会的项目经费资助(No.51879091,No.52079045).
