摘要
2010年底阿拉伯剧变拉开了新旧中东交替的序幕。阿联酋奉行"威胁平衡"政策,与沙特形成二元领导结构,利用军事硬实力干预地区冲突,以经济援助为杠杆影响埃及、海湾国家、非洲之角乃至巴尔干地区政治,以追求"三重目标":遏制伊朗领导的"什叶派抵抗联盟";制衡土耳其领导下的逊尼派"亲穆兄会联盟";打击以"伊斯兰国"为代表的极端主义力量。2018年以来,阿联酋利用外交巧实力,奉行"多元平衡",在中东冲突方之间实施"对冲战略"。在全球层面,阿联酋巩固同美国的安全伙伴关系存量,同时扩大与中国的全面战略伙伴关系和俄罗斯的能源伙伴关系增量;在地区层面,阿联酋与以色列实现关系正常化,与叙利亚巴沙尔政府改善关系,缓和与也门胡塞武装的对抗,向伊朗提供抗疫援助,在东地中海油气争端和利比亚问题上保持超脱。阿联酋"对冲战略"的本质是趋利避害和两面下注,从战略盲动到战略守成,既"增加朋友"又"减少敌人"。随着阿联酋、苏丹、伊拉克、吉布提、摩洛哥等国纷纷奉行"对冲战略","新中东"格局下地区强国之间会出现一个"中间地带"。
After the outbreak of the Arab upheaval in 2010,the"New Middle East"pattern is looming.The United Arab Emirates(UAE)pursued a"balance of threat"policy,forming a dual leadership with Saudi Arabia.The UAE made use of its hard military power to intervene in the Middle Eastern conflicts,and used economic aid as a leverage to influence the politics of Egypt,the Gulf States,the Horn of Africa and even the Balkans,aiming to pursue"three goals":the first is to contain the"Shia coalition"led by Iran;the second is to balance the Sunni"pro-Muslim Brotherhood alliance"under the leadership of Turkey,and the third is to counter the"terrorist groups"represented by the Islamic State.Since 2018,the UAE has relied more on its diplomatic smart power,pursued"multi-faceted balance"and implemented a"hedging strategy"among the parties of the Middle East conflicts.At the global level,the UAE has consolidated its defense and intelligence cooperation with the United States,expanded its comprehensive strategic partnership with China and engaged in energy partnership with Russia;at the regional level,the UAE normalized its relations with Israel,improved relations with the Syrian government,eased confrontation with Yemeni Houthi forces,provided anti-epidemic assistance to Iran,and in the Eastern Mediterranean,the UAE refrained from involvement in the natural gas disputes with Turkey.The essence of UAE’s"hedging strategy"is to maximize its interests and avoid disadvantages,and to bet on both sides.It aims not only to"increase friends"but also to"reduce enemies".With the UAE,Sudan,Iraq,Bahrain,Djibouti and other countries pursuing the"hedging strategy",the"New Middle East"will take shape in an incremental manner with a"middle ground"that seeks a hedging strategy.
作者
孙德刚
喻珍
Sun Degang;Yu Zhen
出处
《西亚非洲》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第2期67-95,共29页
West Asia and Africa
基金
2019年度国家社科基金重点项目“‘中阿合作论坛’框架下中国对阿拉伯国家整体外交研究”(19AGJ010)的阶段性成果
关键词
阿联酋外交
威胁平衡
对冲战略
“增加朋友”
“减少敌人”
diplomacy of United Arab Emirates
balance of threat
hedging strategy
"increase friends"
"reduce enemies"
