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基于灰色系统理论的建筑工程概预算预测模型 被引量:4

Predictive Model of Construction Project Budget Based on Grey System Theory
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摘要 为实现工程概预算的精确计算和工程造价管理,本研究建立了基于应用程序的自动化语言(Visual Basic for Application,VBA)的建设工程概预算系统。该系统根据输入的工程概预算数据信息,汇总建设项目总概预算表,采用概预算计算模块对单位工程和单项工程概预算进行计算。通过工程历史造价数据及价格指数等信息,基于灰色系统理论建立概预算预测模型,弱化了数据波动随机性,增强了预测的准确程度,并对预测概预算价格指数进行相关检验及修正。对实验建筑项目的建设阶段进行实验测试,根据实验结果可知本研究系统得到的概预算与实际概预算更加接近,概预算误差小于1万元,同时该系统能够将运营阶段的运营成本控制在20万元以下。 In order to realize accurate calculation of project budget and project cost management,this research establishes a construction project budget system based on VBA.According to the input project budget data information,the system summarizes the general project budget table,and the unit project and individual project budget are calculated by the budget calculation module.Based on the historical engineering cost data and price index and other information,an estimated budget forecast model is established based on the grey system theory,which weakens random data fluctuations and enhances forecast accuracy.After obtaining the estimated price index,relevant inspections and corrections are carried out.The experimental test was carried out during the construction stage of the experimental building project.Experimental results show that the estimated budget obtained by the proposed system is closer to the actual budget,and the estimated budget error is less than 10,000 yuan.At the same time,the system can control the operating cost in the operation stage below 200,000 yuan.
作者 郑栋 ZHENG Dong(Xinjiang Railway Survey and Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Urumqi,830011,China)
出处 《系统仿真技术》 2022年第1期40-45,共6页 System Simulation Technology
关键词 概预算系统 工程造价管理 灰色系统理论 预测模型 价格指数 budget system project cost management grey system theory prediction model price index
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