摘要
自东北振兴战略实施以来,东北地区经济增长经历了高速发展、断崖式下滑、新常态等多个发展模式。地区用电量作为经济运行的"晴雨表",与经济增长之间的相互关系也呈现出多样性特点。通过对2003~2018年地区GDP增长情况与全社会用电量增长情况的比较分析可知,随着经济增速放缓,用电量下滑更为明显。2012年地区经济进入新常态,特别是当2015年地区经济增速出现明显滑坡时,用电量与经济增长出现了短期背离现象。用电结构变化趋势与产业结构调整趋势基本保持一致。东北地区万元GDP电耗呈波动性下降态势,由2003年的1374.7kW·h下降至2018年的1338.3kW·h,经济发展的质量效益取得一定成果。东北地区用电量与经济发展关系变化的原因包括产业结构调整、高耗能产品去库存以及节能工作的深入开展。分析表明,东北地区用电量与经济发展仍具有较强的相关性,变动趋势基本一致,但用电量变化幅度较GDP更为敏感、显著。随着地区经济进入新常态,对用电量的"晴雨表"作用不应仅从总量增长上进行分析,而应从分产业、分行业等更为细致的方面进行多维度、精细化的研究。
Since the implementation of the revitalization strategy of Northeast China,the economic growth in Northeast China has experienced several development models,including high-speed development,cliff-like decline and the new normal.Regional electricity consumption is a barometer of economic operation,and its relationship with economic growth shows the characteristics of diversity.A comparative analysis of the regional GDP growth and the total electricity consumption growth from 2003 to 2018 shows that the decline in elec-tricity consumption is more remarkable as the economic growth slows down.The regional economy entered a new normal in 2012,and there was a short-term deviation between electricity consumption and economic growth especially when the regional economic growth rate remarkably declined in 2015.The electricity con-sumption structure change trend is basically consistent with the industrial structure adjustment trend.The elec-tricity consumption per 10000 yuan of GDP in Northeast China showed a volatile downward trend,declining from 1374.7 kW·h in 2003 to 1338.3 kW·h in 2018,and some achievements have been made in the quality and benefits of economic development.The reasons for the change in the relationship between electricity con-sumption and economic development in Northeast China include the industrial restructuring,the destocking of energy-intensive products and the further efforts in energy conservation.The analysis shows that there is still a strong correlation between electricity consumption and economic development in Northeast China,and the change trends are basically the same,but the change in electricity consumption is more sensitive and remarkable than that in GDP.As the regional economy enters the new normal,the barometer function of electricity consumption should not only be analyzed from the aggregate growth,but also be explored in multiple dimensions by industries.
作者
张忠华
胡杰
邵羽函
Zhang Zhonghua;Hu Jie;Shao Yuhan(Northeast Electric Power Design Institute Co.,Ltd.of CPECC,Changchun Jilin 130021)
出处
《中外能源》
CAS
2020年第1期91-96,共6页
Sino-Global Energy
关键词
经济增长
用电量
相关性
短期背离
用电结构
东北振兴战略
economic growth
electricity consumption
correlation
short-term deviation
electricity consumption structure
revitalization strategy of Northeast China
