摘要
在推进新时代生态文明建设、确保区域社会经济绿色发展并如期实现碳达峰碳中和目标的发展导向下,基于主体功能区分类约束开展以低碳发展为牵引的多情景国土空间优化模拟研究具有重要意义。以国家生态文明试验区福建省为研究区,设定自然发展和低碳发展两种不同情景,针对不同类别主体功能区,设置差异化的碳排放量、经济效益和生态效益约束目标,在对用地需求进行预测的基础上,基于PLUS模型开展多情景下的国土空间分区优化模拟。结果表明:(1)从用地规模和数量结构来看,低碳发展情景下的功能区用地结构更加符合低碳经济发展的要求,该情景在减缓碳源地增加速度的同时,能够降低碳汇地的减少速度,在保障区域经济发展用地需求的同时减少碳排放并降低生态环境影响;(2)从用地布局来看,虽然不同情景下的用地结构存在一定差异,但从空间分布特征来看,各地类的变化规律基本与历史趋势基本相同,其中碳源地主要分布在临近海岸线处海拔较低、地势平缓易开发的一侧,碳汇地主要集中在内陆区域海拔相对较高且地况较复杂的区域;(3)从三类典型区域空间演变模式来看,农业生产区和生态保护区的变化较小,城镇建设区变化较为明显,城镇建设区和农业生产区主要功能用地分布较为集中且聚合度较高,生态保护区主要功能用地较为分散且一般呈破碎状。在不同发展情景下,国土空间格局中的碳源地不断扩张、碳汇地空间逐步受到挤压,应进一步发掘存量用地的潜力,推动土地资源的高效利用。
Under the context of promoting the ecological civilization construction in the new era,ensuring the green socioeconomic development of regions,and achieving the goal of“carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”as scheduled,it is of great significance to carry out multi-scenario territorial spatial optimization simulation research could be supported by low-carbon development based on the classification and restrict of main functional areas.Two different development scenarios for the natural development and low-carbon development were set by taking Fujian Province,the national pilot zone for ecological conservation,as the research area.Differentiated carbon emissions,economic benefits and ecological benefit constraint and targets were set for various types of main functional areas.Based on the prediction of land use demand,the multi-scenario territorial spatial division optimization simulation was carried out by taking advantage of PLUS model.The results show that:(1)From the perspective of land use scale and quantity structure,the land use structure of functional areas under low-carbon development could better cater the requirements of low-carbon economic development.The low-carbon development scenario can reduce the reduction rate of carbon sink while lowering the growth rate of carbon sources,and lower carbon emissions and the impact on the ecological environment besides meeting the land demand for regional economic development;(2)In terms of land use layout,certain differences do exist in land use structure under different scenarios.However,from the view of spatial distribution characteristics,the changing laws of various lands are basically the same as the previous trends.The carbon source is mainly distributed on the side near the coastline with low altitudes and gentle terrain,which is easy to be developed,and the carbon sink is mainly concentrated in the inland areas with relatively high altitudes and complex terrain;(3)From the perspective of three types of typical regional spatial evolution patterns,the changes in agricultural production areas and ecological protection areas are few,in comparison to the significant changes of urban construction areas.The main functional lands in urban construction areas and agricultural production areas are more concentrated,with a high degree of aggregation.The main functional lands in the ecological reserve scatter and are under fragmented status.Under different development scenarios,the carbon source in the spatial pattern expands continuously while carbon sink space decreases subtly.It is necessary to further explore the potential of stock land,with a view to promoting the efficiency of land resource use.
作者
李代超
卢嘉奇
谢晓苇
虞虎
李元
吴升
LI Daichao;LU Jiaqi;XIE Xiaowei;YU Hu;LI Yuan;WU Sheng(Key Laboratory of Spatial Data Mining&Information Sharing of Ministry of Education,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350002,China;Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;The Academy of Digital China,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350002,China;Fujian Urban and Rural Planning Design Institute,Fuzhou 350028,China)
出处
《生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第24期10111-10126,共16页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)(XDA23100502)
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0401)
关键词
低碳发展
主体功能区
MOP模型
PLUS模型
多情景优化模拟
low-carbon development
main functional areas
MOP model
PLUS model
multi-scenario optimization simulation
