摘要
随着中美实力差距缩小和中美战略竞争加剧,亚太国家日益面临如何在中美之间进行战略和外交选择的问题,它们的选择对中国的战略环境及民族复兴具有直接影响。为探究中美战略竞争背景下何种情况亚太国家会更倾向于在中美之间两面下注而不是追随某个特定大国,什么因素会影响它们相对更注重加强与中国而不是与美国的关系,作者借助动态面板的系统GMM方法,以亚太地区22个国家为研究对象、以1991—2018年为时间段建立模型,对亚太国家在中美战略竞争过程中的行为选择规律做出实证研究。研究发现,在当前阶段,中美关系会对亚太国家行为选择产生显著影响。中美关系越紧张,小国越倾向于在中美之间两面下注,同时越倾向于相对改善与中国的关系。此外,亚太国家国内合法性会正向影响它们的对冲倾向,但亚太国家对外部的经济和军事依赖与其行为选择无关,表明"供给—需求"框架不是分析和理解亚太国家行为选择的适宜分析框架。
The narrowing China-U.S.power gap and the intensification of the China-U.S.strategic competition mean that Asia-Pacific countries now face to an increasing extent the problem of how to make strategic and diplomatic choices between the United States and China,which has direct impact on China’s strategic environment and national rejuvenation.To explore the circumstances under which Asia-Pacific countries tend to hedge between the U.S.and China rather than to bandwagon with a particular power,and what factors influence their paying more attention to strengthening their relations with China rather than with the U.S.in the change of power,this paper uses the dynamic panel System GMM approach,taking 22 states in the Asia-Pacific region as the research objects over the period 1991 to 2018 to establish a group of dynamic panel models for an empirical study on the behavioral choice rules of Asia-Pacific countries.The study finds that,at the current stage,the U.S.-China relations per se have significant impact on the behavioral choices of Asia-Pacific countries.The more strained the relations between China and the U.S.become,the more inclined small states are to hedge between the two great powers and to relatively improve their relations with China.In addition,the domestic legitimacy of Asia-Pacific countries positively influences their hedging tendency,but Asia-Pacific countries’economic and military dependence on states elsewhere has no bearing on their behavioral choices.This would imply that the"supply-demand"framework is an inappropriate analytical structure for analyzing and understanding the behavioral choices of Asia-Pacific countries.
作者
曹玮
Cao Wei(Department of International Politics,University of International Relations.)
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第2期47-77,157-158,共33页
World Economics and Politics
基金
“中美安全竞争中的第三方因素研究”(项目编号:2020GA01)阶段性成果
国际关系学院国家安全高精尖学科建设科研专项资金资助
关键词
中美战略竞争
权力转移
对冲
周边外交
面板数据
China-U.S.strategic competition
power transition
hedging
neighborhood diplomacy
panel data
