摘要
Based on the daily maximum temperature data and average temperature data prediction for the period ranging from 2020 to 2099 under the scenario of BNU-ESM climate engineering(G4 test)and non-climate engineering(RCP4.5),the regional differences in the extreme high-temperature intensities in China during the implementation of climate engineering programs(2020 to 2069)and after the implementation of those programs(2070 to 2099)were analyzed using the Weibull Distribution Theory.The results are as follows.(1)The comparison of the two scenarios shows that climate engineering has not fundamentally changed the spatial variation of the intensity of extreme hightemperature events in different recurring periods in China.It was found that in both scenarios,the extreme hightemperature intensities were characterized by the spatial differentiations of low-temperature intensities on the QinghaiTibet Plateau,and high-temperature intensities in the eastern and northwestern region.(2)The comparison of the two scenarios shows that climate engineering in the two study periods could help mitigate the extreme high-temperature intensities with different recurrence periods in China,and the mitigation effects during the implementation period would be significantly higher than those after the implementation.(3)The comparison between the periods ranging from 2020 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099 under the proposed climate engineering scenarios suggests that there would be no strong rebounding of extreme high-temperatures following the implementation of climate engineering programs.Moreover,the mitigation effect of extreme high-temperature intensity during the implementation of climate engineering is significantly higher than that after the completion of climate engineering.(4)According to the comparison between the average temperature changes in China before and after the implementation of the climate project,the average temperature in China has been reduced by at least 1.25℃,which effectively alleviates global warming and is conducive to the realization of the 1.5℃temperature control target of the Paris Agreement.
作者
KONG Feng
孔锋(School of Public Policy and Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084 China;Center for Crisis Management Research,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084 China;Center for Social Risk Assessment in China,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084 China)
基金
Beijing Social Science(19JDGLA008)
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801064,41701103,71790611)
Central Asia Atmospheric Science Research Fund(CAAS201804)
China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2019T120114,2019M650756)
