摘要
根据重庆江北国际机场1996-2011年年加油量,结合国内外主流加油量预测方法,对江北机场往年加油量分别进行一次线性回归、二次线性回归、三次线性回归和四次线性回归。最终通过对四者拟合数据误差分析和预测量误差分析,比较出二次方线性回归加油量预测结果误差值最小,其相对误差为1%,更适合于加油量预测模型。四次方线性回归拟合数据误差小,但预测量误差为3.57%。
In this paper,based on the annual refueling volume of Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport from 1996 to 2011 and combined with the domestic and foreign mainstream refueling volume prediction methods,the first-power linear regression,the second-power linear regression and the third-power linear regression were conducted for the annual refueling volume of Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport in previous years.Finally,through the error analysis of the three fitting data and the error analysis of the predicted quantity,the results of the quadratic linear regression refueling amount prediction result error value is the smallest,and the relative error is 1%,which is more suitable for the refueling amount prediction model.The error of cubic linear regression fitting data is small,but the prediction error is 2.10%.
作者
王小航
许晓康
杨文
吴顺生
聂建民
李燕军
Ma Yuan
Wang Xiao-hang;Xu Xiao-kang;Yang Wen;Wu shun-sheng;Nie Jian-min;Li Yan-jun;Ma Yuan(Aviation Fuel Corporation of China,Ningxia Yinchuan 750000)
出处
《内蒙古石油化工》
CAS
2021年第6期38-40,共3页
Inner Mongolia Petrochemical Industry
关键词
江北机场
加油量预测
多元非线性回归
预测模型
Jiangbei airport
tanker volume prediction
Multiple nonlinear regression
prediction model
