摘要
山西省是我国首个能源革命综合改革试点,能源赋存与消费都以煤炭为主,通过实证分析研究煤炭消费与经济增长的关系,有利于明确两者的因果方向,针对性采取切实有效的措施,在进行能源革命综合改革的过程中切实保障经济发展,具有理论与实际意义。以1995—2017年山西省终端煤炭消费总量与地方生产总值两个指标为样本研究两者的关系,依次采用ADF检验法、EG两步法和Granger因果检验法对两变量序列的平稳性、协整关系和因果性进行验证分析。研究结果表明,在消费意义上,山西省为非煤炭依赖型经济,存在由地方生产总值到终端煤炭消费的格兰杰成因,且两者的长期均衡回归方程表明山西省第t年的地方生产总值每变动1%,第t年的终端煤炭消费将会随之变动1.071326%。因此,应以散煤治理为核心严控不合理煤炭消费,稳步有序实现消费侧的去煤化;增强绿色能源消费观念、增加绿色能源公共产品投入,以引导增加绿色能源消费。
Shanxi Province is the first pilot comprehensive reform of the energy revolution in China,and energy accumulation and consumption are dominated by coal.Through empirical analysis to study the relationship between coal consumption and economic growth,it is helpful to clarify the causal direction of the two,to take practical and effective measures,and to ensure the economic development in the process of comprehensive reform of the energy revolution,which has theoretical and practical significance.Taking the two indicators of total terminal coal consumption and local GDP in Shanxi Province from 1995 to 2017 as samples,the relationship between the two was studied,and ADF test,EG two-step method and Granger causality test were used to verify and analyze the stability,cointegration and causality of the two-variable sequence.The results show that,in the sense of consumption,Shanxi Province is a non-coal-dependent economy with Granger causes from local GDP to terminal coal consumption.And the long-term equilibrium regression equation of the two shows that for every 1%change in local GDP in the t-th year of Shanxi Province,the terminal coal consumption in the t-th year will change by 1.071326%.Therefore,unreasonable coal consumption should be strictly controlled with loose coal governance as the core,and decoalization on the consumption side should be achieved steadily and orderly,Strengthen the concept of green energy consumption,increase the input of green energy public products,and guide the increase of green energy consumption.
作者
王恒旭
王娇
薛晔
Wang Hengxu;Wang Jiao;Xue Ye(School of Economics and Management,Taiyuan University of Technology,Jinzhong 030600,China)
出处
《煤炭经济研究》
2020年第6期13-18,共6页
Coal Economic Research
基金
山西省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(2017314)
山西省软科学基金资助项目(2017041025-2)
