摘要
自新冠疫情爆发以来,全球范围内陆续采取"封城封国"的防疫措施,严重影响了居民的生产生活。从短期来看,疫情对我国三产造成直接冲击的同时,外贸出口受限使得占我国出口比例较高的二产制造业也遭受重创。从中长期来看,若外部冲击一旦转化为内生性冲击,对供需侧造成不可修复性打击,对我国造成较为深远的影响。面对严峻的疫情形势和复杂的国际环境,虽然"新基建"为电力需求释放红利,但疫情后的经济形势和电力需求仍充满不确定性。通过分析疫情现状和后疫情时代形势,将疫情对电力行业影响分为短期和中长期。预测2020年全社会用电量在7.09万亿~7.38万亿kWh,增速在-2%~2%;分产业预测2025年全社会用电量为8.07万亿~8.53万亿kWh,"十四五"期间用电量增速在2.2%~3.4%。在满足电力需求的条件下,2020年煤电发电量在4.3万亿~4.49万亿kWh区间内,则煤电发电量增速在-5.6%^-1.6%左右,预计2020年电力行业煤炭消耗量降为12.6亿tce。
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic,the epidemic prevention measures of"closing cities and countries"have been adopted worldwide,which has seriously affected the production and lives of residents.In the short term,while the epidemic has a direct impact on China’s tertiary industry,the limited export of foreign trade has also caused the secondary industry manufacturing industry,which accounts for a high proportion of China’s exports,to be hit hard.In the medium and long term,if external shocks are transformed into endogenous shocks,they will cause an irreparable impact on the supply and demand side and have a far-reaching impact on China.Facing the severe epidemic situation and the complex international environment,although the"new infrastructure"has released dividends for power demand,the economic situation and power demand after the epidemic are still full of uncertainty.By analyzing the status of the epidemic situation and the post-epidemic era situation,the impact of the epidemic on the power industry is divided into short term and medium and long term.It is predicted that the electricity consumption of the whole society will be 7.09 trillion to 7.38 trillion kWh in 2020,with a growth rate of-2%to 2%;the electricity consumption of the whole society is predicted to be 8.07 trillion to 8.53 trillion kWh by 2025.During the 14 th Five-Year Plan period,the growth rate of electricity consumption is between 2.2%and 3.4%.Under the condition of meeting the power demand,in 2020,the coal-fired power generation is in the range of 4.3 trillion to4.49 trillion kWh,then the growth rate of coal-fired power generation is about-5.6%to-1.6%.It is expected that the coal consumption of the power industry in 2020 will drop to 12.6 billion tce.
作者
袁家海
张凯
Yuan Jiahai;Zhang Kai(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)
出处
《煤炭经济研究》
2020年第4期9-16,共8页
Coal Economic Research
关键词
新冠疫情
影响因素
需求预测
电力行业
COVID-19 epidemic
influencing factors
demand forecast
power industry
