摘要
通过绘制山东省2017年能流图,分析山东省能源供应、中间转换及终端消费现状,并在此基础上与2008年能源消耗情况进行对比分析。得到如下结论:①山东省能源供应及消费结构清洁化、低碳化效果明显;②山东省电力仍以火电为主,而且火力发电能源投入依旧以煤炭为主;③山东省能源加工转换效率普遍提高;山东省工业部门能源消耗依旧占终端能源消耗的主导地位,后采用二次指数平滑法结合政策分析预测2020年山东省一次能源生产量、天然气消费量未能达到《山东省能源中长期发展规划》中所设目标,提出以下发展建议:①进一步降低一次能源中煤炭的生产量;②保证天然气供应,大幅提高天然气消费比重。
By drawing the energy flow chart of Shandong Province in 2017,the current situation of energy supply,intermediate conversion and terminal consumption in Shandong Province is analyzed,and on this basis,a comparative analysis is made with the energy consumption situation in 2008.The following conclusions are obtained:①The clean and low-carbon effect of energy supply and consumption structure in Shandong Province is obvious;②The power of Shandong Province is still dominated by thermal power,and the energy input of thermal power is still mainly coal;③The energy conversion efficiency of Shandong Province has generally improved;④The energy consumption of the industrial sector in Shandong Province still dominates the final energy consumption.Then the secondary exponential smoothing method was used in combination with policy analysis to predict that the primary energy production and natural gas consumption of Shandong Province in 2020 would not meet the targets set in the Shandong Medium and Long-Term Development Plan.The following development suggestions are put forward:①To further reduce the production of coal in primary energy sources;②To ensure the supply of natural gas and greatly increase the proportion of natural gas consumption.
作者
董东林
张一艳
林刚
Dong Donglin;Zhang Yiyan;Lin Gang(School of Earth Sciences and Surveying Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《煤炭经济研究》
2020年第2期31-38,共8页
Coal Economic Research
关键词
山东省
能流图
能源平衡
能源需求预测
Shandong Province
energy flow diagram
energy balance
energy demand forecast
