摘要
以白水江国家级自然保护区为研究对象,基于GIS空间分析以及地理统计方法,利用11个全球气候模式,在RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5四种排放情景下预估研究区21世纪中叶和末期气温和降水,采用多模式集合平均探讨研究区的气候变化.结果表明,相比当前(1950-2000年)年均气温和年均降水,在约2050年,RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景下平均气温增加量分别为1.78、2.11、1.82和2.71℃,降水量分别增长4.58%、5.70%、0.80%和3.75%;到2070年,4种情景下平均气温增加量分别为1.76、2.56、2.60和3.95℃,降水量分别增长6.56%、7.88%、2.57%和7.55%.在2050年和2070年,无论哪种典型浓度路径,研究区的气温和降水都将增加.
The Baishuijiang National Nature Reserve was selected as our study area.In order to analyze the climate changes there in the future and based on GIS spatial analysis and geographic statistics,we estimated the temperature and precipitation in the study area for the middle and end of this century using 11 global climate models(GCMs)under four representative concentration pathways(RCPs),i.e.RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5.Climate changes in the study area were discussed based on the multiGCMs ensemble average and the results showed that,compared with the current status(1950-2000),in the mid-21 st century(about 2050)the increase in the average annual temperature under the four scenarios of RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 would be 1.78,2.11,1.82 and 2.71℃respectively,the increase in average annual precipitation under the four scenarios would be 4.58%,5.70%,0.80%and3.75%,respectively.By 2070,the increase in temperature under the four scenarios would be 1.76,2.56,2.60 and 3.95℃respectively,and precipitation would increase by 6.56%,7.88%,2.57%and 7.55%,respectively.From the results,we can conclude that the temperature and precipitation in the future will increase regardless of representative concentration pathways.
作者
刘兴明
常亚鹏
赵传燕
戎战磊
杨文赟
LIU Xing-ming;CHANG Ya-peng;ZHAO Chuan-yan;RONG Zhan-lei;YANG Wen-yun(Administration of Baishuijiang National Nature Reserve on Gansu,Longnan 746400,Gansu,China;College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;College of Geographical Science,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810008,China)
出处
《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第4期537-543,550,共8页
Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)
基金
2018年中央财政珍稀濒危野生动植物保护补助项目(DJGK-2019-016-HT-001)
关键词
气候变化
气候模式
典型浓度路径
白水江国家级自然保护区
climate change
global climate models
representative concentration pathway
Baishuijiang National Nature Reserve
