摘要
服务型制造是当前制造业转型升级、培育竞争优势、实现高质量发展的重要趋势。然而,人口老龄化所带来了老龄社会结构与人口红利模式转变直接影响到了服务型制造的发展,进而影响经济增长。本文基于中国省级面板数据,分析人口老龄化对服务型制造的影响与机制。研究发现:人口老龄化促进了服务型制造的发展,门槛效应表明伴随着城镇化进度的加快,促进作用将不断增强;机制分析表明,人口老龄化对市场需求转变、劳动力供给与就业结构和人力资本质量等路径的影响呈现先抑制后促进的U形曲线关系,对不同路径分别处于U形曲线的不同阶段。异质性分析中,人口老龄化对服务型制造的影响也呈U形曲线发展,在老龄社会和高收入地区表现为促进作用,而在中等收入地区则表现为抑制作用。从长远考虑,应加快老龄社会转型,促进老年群体消费转型,推动产业结构升级,转变要素驱动为创新驱动,实现人口质量的经济红利释放。
Service-oriented manufacturing is an important trend in the current upgrading of manufacturing.However,population ageing has a direct impact on the development of service-oriented manufacturing and economic growth.Empirical research based on provincial panel data shows that population aging promotes the development of service-oriented manufacturing.the threshold efect indicates that the promotion efect will be increasing along with the acceleration of urbanization.Mechanism analysis shows that the impact of population aging on the paths of market demand transformation,labor supply and employment structure and human capital quality has a U curve relationship,with different paths in different stages of the U curve.In the heterogeneity analysis,the impact of population aging on service-oriented manufacturing also shows a U curve.The impacts are facilitating in old societies and high-income regions,and inhibiting in middle-income regions.Therefore,we should accelerate the transformation of the aging society,promote the consumption of the elderly group and the upgrading of industrial structure,and then realize the population quality dividend.
作者
汪兆江
刘丹丹
Wang Zhaojiang;Liu Dandan
出处
《劳动经济评论》
2024年第1期177-195,共19页
Labor Economic Review
关键词
人口老龄化
服务型制造
门槛效应
population aging
service-oriented manufacturing
threshold effect
