摘要
本文选取2005-2017年中国省级面板数据,对各省逆向技术溢出强度与碳排放强度进行了测度,运用空间杜宾模型,并结合中介效应模型实证检验了中国对外直接投资(OFDI)过程中产生的逆向技术溢出效应对碳排放强度的影响机制。检验结果表明:逆向技术溢出会显著抑制本地碳排放强度,也会通过空间效应抑制周边地区的碳强度,且自主技术创新在其中充当中介变量,本地区母公司能对周边地区的绿色技术发展产生杠杆效应和正向的空间溢出;逆向技术溢出对本地碳排放强度的抑制作用受到东西部区位和经济发展水平的差异性影响;当投资东道国为“一带一路”部分国家时,逆向技术溢出依然能够抑制中国碳排放强度,但自主技术创新不再发挥中介效应;本文为推动中国经济低碳发展,早日实现碳中和任务提供了理论借鉴。
This paper aims to research the impact of reverse technology spillover on the carbon emission intensity of home countries and whether the independent technological innovation of home countries can play an intermediary role in the process of reverse technology spillover affecting carbon emissions.Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2005 to 2017,this paper measures the intensity of reverse technology spillover and carbon emission intensity in each province.Preliminary analysis shows that the distribution of carbon emission intensity in China is high in the northwest and southwest regions,and low in the eastern coastal areas.For example,the carbon emission intensity in Inner Mongolia,Ningxia,Xinjiang,Shanxi and Guizhou is always at the forefront.Over time,the carbon emissions in China show a gradual downward trend.Next,this paper uses the spatial Durbin model and the intermediary effect model to test the influence and mechanism of reverse technology spillover effect on carbon emission intensity in the process of outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)in China.The test results show that reverse technology spillover will significantly inhibit the local carbon emission intensity,and it will also inhibit the carbon emission intensity of surrounding areas through spatial effect.In addition,independent technological innovation acts as an incomplete intermediary variable,and the parent companies in local area can generate leverage effect and positive spatial spillover on the development of green technology in surrounding areas.At the same time,the results of heterogeneity test show that the inhibitory effect of reverse technology spillover on carbon emission intensity is affected by the differences in geographic location,economic development level and investment host countries.The reverse technology spillover effect of the eastern region can significantly inhibit the carbon emission intensity of the local area and the surrounding areas,and independent technological innovation can act as an intermediary variable.In the midwest regions,reverse technology spillover can only inhibit carbon emissions in local area,but it will worsen the carbon emissions in the surrounding areas,there was no significant improvement in carbon emissions in the Midwest on total effects,and the intermediary mechanism is no longer obvious.For economically developed regions,spatial spillover mechanism and intermediary mechanism are still obvious,and the effect of core explanatory variables is basically the same as that in the eastern region.The reverse technology spillover in underdeveloped areas will disaster the carbon emissions of surrounding areas,and independent technological innovation has not played a mediating effect.When the host country of investment is part of the"Belt and Road"countries,reverse technology spillovers can still restrain the carbon emission intensity of China,but independent technological innovation no longer plays an intermediary effect.In the robustness test,this paper presents three methods including replacement variables,replacement space weight matrix and adding interaction terms.The test results of the main variables are basically consistent with the previous ones,which proves the credibility of the results.This paper provides a theoretical reference for China's low-carbon economic development,and provides guidance for the early realization of carbon neutrality tasks.
作者
方叶祥
卢一斌
FANG Ye-xiang;LU Yi-bin(School of Economics and Management,Nanjing Tech University,Nanjing 211816,China)
出处
《科学学研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第5期818-829,885,共13页
Studies in Science of Science
基金
江苏省社会科学重大应用项目(20WTA-002)
江苏省社会科学基金项目研究成果(21GLB010)
江苏省高校社会科学重点基金项目(2017ZDIXM075)
关键词
逆向技术溢出
自主技术创新
碳排放
空间杜宾模型
中介机制
reverse technology spillover
independent innovation
carbon emission intensity
spatial durbin model
intermediary mechanism
