摘要
本文以中老铁路开通为切入点,运用双重差分法与我国31个省级行政区(不含港澳台)的面板数据,评估“一带一路”背景下中老铁路开通对泛亚铁路(东南亚段)沿线国家出口的影响。研究发现:一是中老铁路开通提升了对老挝、泰国、缅甸、马来西亚的出口贸易,降低了对越南的出口贸易,对出口柬埔寨、新加坡辐射效应不足。二是距昆明较远的省份更有倾向于加大对老挝、泰国、缅甸、马来西亚的出口,出口越南无论距离远近均为减少。三是“出口效应”主要表现在内陆省份,对出口老挝、泰国、缅甸、马来西亚促进作用明显,对出口越南表现为降低。四是显著提升了中低端产品出口缅甸,降低了高端产品出口越南,出口老挝无论产品类型均为提升。
This paper takes the opening of the“China-Laos Railway”as the starting point,and uses the double difference method and the panel data of 31 provincial-level administrative regions(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)in my country to evaluate the impact of the opening of the China-Laos Railway on the Trans-Asian Railway under the background of the“Belt and Road”.(Southeast Asia Section)The impact of exports from countries along the route.The study found that:First,the opening of the China-Laos Railway has increased the export trade to Laos,Thailand,Myanmar,and Malaysia,reduced the export trade to Vietnam,and has insufficient radiation effect on exports to Cambodia and Singapore.Second,provinces farther away from Kunming tend to increase exports to Laos,Thailand,Myanmar,and Malaysia,while exports to Vietnam decrease regardless of distance.Third,the“export effect”is mainly manifested in inland provinces,which has a significant role in promoting exports to Laos,Thailand,Myanmar,and Malaysia,and has a reduced export to Vietnam.Fourth,the export of middle and low-end products to Myanmar has been significantly increased,the export of high-end products to Vietnam has been reduced,and the export to Laos has increased.
出处
《开发性金融研究》
2023年第2期65-76,共12页
Development Finance Research
关键词
中老铁路
双重差分
出口贸易
China-Laos railway
Differences-in-Differences
Export Trade
