摘要
随着大数据、人工智能等数字经济产业的发展布局,资本市场对互联网医疗和云计算等科创型企业的关注将会越来越多,但基于其研发投入高、高风险、收益不稳定等发展特点,传统的估值方法已不再适用。本文基于科创型企业的行业特征,构建了灰色预测、剩余收益和实物期权结合的综合价值评估模型,并以互联网医疗企业阿里健康为例进行了模型评估应用和比较分析。从估计结果来看,剩余收益模型估值结果与企业价值较为接近,但存在低估的可能。进一步考虑加入实物期权后,最终估值结果的精准性有了显著的提升,在一定程度上改善了剩余收益模型可能存在的企业价值低估的问题。为科创型企业的价值评估方法的选择提供了一定的参考。
With the development of digital economy industries such as big data and artificial intelligence,the capital market will pay more and more attention to scientific and technological enterprises such as Internet healthcare and cloud computing.However,due to their high R&D investment,high risks,and low returns Stability and other development characteristics,traditional valuation methods are no longer applicable.Based on the characteristics of the science and innovation industry,this paper constructs a comprehensive value evaluation model that combines gray forecasting,residual income and real options,and uses the Internet medical company Ali Health as an example to conduct model evaluation and comparative analysis.From the estimation results,the valuation result of the residual income model is relatively close to the enterprise value,but there is a possibility of underestimation.After further considering the addition of real options,the accuracy of the final valuation results has been significantly improved,and to a certain extent the problem of underestimation of corporate value that may exist in the residual income model has been improved.It provides a certain reference for the selection of value evaluation methods for science and technology enterprises.
作者
付洪涛
武英涛
Hongtao Fu;Yingtao Wu(School of Finance and Business,Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai 200234,China)
出处
《金融管理研究》
2021年第1期85-103,共19页
The Journal of Finance and Management Research
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“创新驱动战略视角下高校科技成果转化的体制与机制改革研究”(AIA180010)的资助
关键词
剩余收益模型
实物期权模型
灰色预测模型
科创型企业
价值评估
residual income model
real option model
grey forecasting model
science and innovation enterprise
value evaluation
