摘要
本文对资金流量的核算统计与分析的相关国内外文献进行了综述,从分析资金流动机制及统计框架入手,尝试从三个角度构建中国的资金流动模型,即投资-储蓄、进出口方程和国际资本流动,并对未来资金流动对经济增长的影响进行了预测。结论表明:中国居民可支配收入对储蓄的影响较大,同时GDP增长对投资刺激的作用较为显著,财政支出对投资的拉动作用较为明显。中国证券投资收益对资金流入的影响不显著,但外国直接投资对资金流入的影响较大,经济增长对资金流入影响较大。假定模型中影响我国资金流入和流出的几个指标保持近九年年均增长率,模型结果显示未来几年我国GDP增速将与当前实际经济增速有较高一致性。
In this paper,the cash flow of the accounting statistics and analysis of related literature at home and abroad were summarized,and from the analysis of cash flow mechanism and the framework,this paper attempts to from three angles to build China’s cash flow model,namely,investment-savings,import and export equation and international capital flows,and cash flow’s influence on economic growth in the future is forecasted.The conclusion shows that the disposable income of Chinese residents has a great impact on savings,and GDP growth has a significant effect on investment stimulation,and fiscal expenditure has a significant effect on investment promotion.China’s securities investment income has no significant impact on capital inflow,but foreign direct investment has a greater impact on capital inflow,and economic growth has a greater impact on capital inflow.It is assumed that several indicators affecting the capital inflow and outflow of China in the model maintain the average annual growth rate of nearly nine years,and the model results show that the GDP growth rate of China in the next few years will have a high consistency with the current actual economic growth rate.
作者
孙晓丹
Sun Xiaodan(Haerbin Central Sub-branch,the People’s Bank of China)
出处
《金融发展评论》
2019年第10期11-22,共12页
Financial Development Review
