摘要
本文基于时变随机前沿引力模型,并结合2003-2018年丝绸之路经济带沿线24个国家双边贸易的面板数据,分析了影响中国与欧亚经济联盟国家贸易流量的主要因素,估计并测算了贸易效率和前沿贸易潜力。结果表明:贸易流量与各国GDP有正向关系,与人口和距离有负向关系;贸易非效率项显著制约了双边贸易规模,其中经济自由度、政治稳定度、关税水平与贸易量流量呈现出负向关系;中国与欧亚经济联盟各国的贸易发展水平极不均衡,但贸易效率均呈递增趋势;而双边贸易潜力的不断升高,说明了中国与欧亚经济联盟的贸易效率还没有被完全开发。因此,为进一步提高中国与欧亚经济联盟的贸易规模,应充分发挥贸易互补优势、优化出口商品结构、完善交通基础设施建设、加快推进自贸区谈判并加强双方高层的沟通交流。
Based on time varying random frontier gravity model,combined with data of bilateral trade of 24 countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt from 2003 to 2018,this article analyzes the major factors that affect trading flow between China and countries of Eurasian Economic Union,estimates and measures trading efficiency and frontier trading potential.The result indicates that:there is a positive relationship between trading flow and GDP of each country,while there is a negative relationship between trading flow and population and distance.Trade inefficiency significantly restricts the scale of bilateral trade.Among them,there is a negative relationship between economic freedom,politic stability,tariff level and trade volume flow.On the contrary,the trading development between China and countries of Eurasian Economic Union is extremely imbalanced,but the trading efficiency keeps increasing.With the rise of bilateral trading potential,the trading efficiency between China and countries of Eurasian Economic Union hasn’t been fully developed.Therefore,in order to further improve the trading scale between China and countries of Eurasian Economic Union,it is necessary to completely exert complementary advantages in trade,optimize structure of export products,improve construction of transportation infrastructure,accelerate negotiation of free trade zone and enhance high position communication between both sides.
作者
郭连成
左云
Guo Liancheng;Zuo Yun
出处
《经济问题探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第3期100-110,共11页
Inquiry Into Economic Issues
基金
国家社科基金重大项目“建设面向东北亚开放合作高地与推进新时代东北振兴研究”(20&ZD098),项目负责人:郭连成
国家社会科学基金后期资助重点项目“俄罗斯经济发展道路与发展态势论析”(19FGJA002),项目负责人:郭连成
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“俄罗斯减贫措施及对上合组织中亚和印巴成员国的启示研究”(19YJAGJW002),项目负责人:刁秀华
关键词
欧亚经济联盟
贸易效率
贸易潜力
丝绸之路经济带
Eurasian economic union
Trade efficiency
Trade potential
Silk Road Economic Belt
