摘要
为研究区域房地产市场房价空间相关性及影响因素,厘清城市群房价空间作用机制,本研究采用空间杜宾模型对京津冀城市群13个城市2007-2016年的房价进行深入研究。与以往研究结果不同的是,本研究发现京津冀城市群房价空间关联性并非正向的溢出和扩散,而是表现为负向的极化效应,尤其是协同发展战略提出前极化效应极为明显,意味着核心城市北京虹吸效应过强,导致与其他城市的房价差距不断扩大。协同发展战略提出后极化效应有所改善,但仍未显现涓滴效应,即房价差距仍在扩大,城市群内部房地产市场发育程度仍不均衡。从地区间房价空间波动的影响因素来看,需求面因素中,人口是京津冀地区房价空间相关性产生的主要驱动因素,利率扩散和同质预期对区域内其他城市房价波动的影响在京津冀协同发展战略提出后逐渐体现;供给面因素中,地价和房地产竣工面积分别对区域内其他城市房价具有显著的正向和负向影响。基于此,本研究提出思考与建议,为保证区域房地产市场协同发展,需建立房地产协同调控机制、构建有序住房梯度消费体系、严厉打击空间套利行为,从而促进区域房地产市场长期健康发展。
In order to study the spatial correlation and influencing factors of housing prices in the regional real estate market,and to clarify the spatial action mechanism of housing prices in the urban agglomeration,this study adopts the Spatial Dubin Model to conduct in-depth research on housing prices of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 2007 to 2016.Unlike previous research results,this study finds that Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration spatial correlation house prices is not a positive spillover and diffusion,but show the negative polarization effect,especially the polarization effect is very obvious before the coordination development strategy is put forward,which means the siphon effect in the core city of Beijing is too strong,leading to a widening gap in housing prices with other cities.Although the polarization effect of housing price has been improved after the beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy was put forward,the trickle-down effect has not been shown,that is,the housing price gap is still expanding and the development degree of the real estate market within the urban agglomeration is still uneven.From the perspective of the factors influencing the spatial fluctuation of inter-regional housing prices,population is the main driver of the spatial correlation of housing prices in The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and the impact of interest rate diffusion and homogeneous expectations on the housing price fluctuations of other cities in the region is gradually reflected after the coordinated development strategy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is proposed.Among the supply side factors,the land price and the completed area of real estate have significant positive and negative influences on the housing price of other cities in the region respectively.Based on this,this study puts forward thinking and suggestions.In order to ensure the coordinated development of regional real estate market,it is necessary to establish a coordinated regulation mechanism of real estate,build an orderly housing gradient consumption system,and crack down on spatial arbitrage behavior,so as to promote the long-term healthy development of regional real estate market.
作者
林馨
吕萍
Lin Xin;Lv Ping(不详)
出处
《经济问题探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第1期79-90,共12页
Inquiry Into Economic Issues
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“城镇化演进中的城乡住房融合研究:机理剖析、分析框架与现实路径”(71673285),项目负责人:吕萍
研究阐释党的十九大精神国家社科基金专项课题项目“新时代我国城乡住房制度变革与创新”(18VSJ097),项目负责人:吕萍
关键词
房价
京津冀城市群
空间相关性
Housing Price
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration
Spatial Correlation
