摘要
本研究纳入资本资产和劳动力异质性汇总出总资本服务和总劳动服务,并从中剥离出质量变化,在此基础上基于总生产函数测算中国1987~2015年生产率增长及其对经济增长的贡献。结果发现TFP(total factor productivity,全要素生产率)年均增速递减,由1986~1996年的4.59%下降至2006~2015年的1.28%,2011年以来呈高开低走态势,但2014~2015年小幅翘尾;ALP(average labor productivity,平均劳动生产率)增长表现出周期性,1990年和2010年两次触底,2011年大幅下跌,但2011~2015年周期走势尚未终结。综合来看,2011年之后的中国生产率变化是否会陷入"生产率悖论"还有待跟踪研究。此外,中国经济增长主要靠资本存量驱动,前期全要素生产率增长贡献较为显著,资本质量和劳动质量贡献式微。
The paper aggregated total capital service and total labor service under including heterogeneity of capital assets and labor,and stripped of the quality change.On the basis of that the productivity growth and its contribution to economic growth in China from1987 to 2015 was measured according to Aggregate Production Function.The results show that the average growth rate per year of TFP decreases progressively from 4.59%during1986-1996 to 1.28%during 2006-2015.Since 2011 the growth rate of TFP has a high staring point but walks downhill,and 2014-2015 shows modest uphill.The growth rates of ALP tend to periodicity,which hit bottom in 1990 and 2010 and fall sharply in 2011,but the trend of periodicity from 2011 to 2015 is not ending.Looking at the two sides,it is still a question that whether the productivity change in China after 2011 will fall into"the productivity paradox".Besides,the economic growth of China is mainly driven by capital stock,and the contribution of TFP growth is more significant at the early stage of study period.However,the contribution of capital quality and labor quality growth is feeble.
作者
姬卿伟
李跃
Ji Qingwei;LiYue(School of Statistics and Mathematics,Zhejiang University Hangzhou 310018;Prot Office of Shenzhen Municipality,Shenzhen 518033)
出处
《经济统计学（季刊）》
2018年第1期139-151,共13页
China Economic Statistics Quarterly
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目(15AZD052)
浙江省一流学科(1020JYN4118004G-29,1020JYN4118004G-48).
关键词
全要素生产率
平均劳动生产率
异质性
资本服务
劳动服务
Total Factor Productivity
Average Labor Productivity
Heterogeneity
Capital Service
Labor Service
