摘要
利用2005—2019年我国31省面板数据,基于三种权重矩阵构建空间滞后模型和空间误差模型,分析房价、房价收入比对城镇化的影响。结果表明:(1)房价、房价收入比与三种城镇化的空间自相关和空间依赖性显著,并存在空间溢出效应和"马太效应"。(2)房价对人口城镇化、经济城镇化与土地城镇化的正向影响作用显著,房价对人口城镇化的影响呈现倒"U"型,但房价对经济城镇化和土地城镇化的影响是线性的。(3)房价收入比对人口城镇化的影响为正,房价收入比对经济城镇化与土地城镇化的影响呈倒"U"型。(4)从区域看,东部和中部房价上涨对人口城镇化的影响为正,西部为负;中部房价收入比对人口城镇化的影响不显著,西部为正,东部为负;中西部人口城镇化溢出效应最大。
Using panel data from China’s 31 provinces from 2005 to 2019,this study introduces an analytical modeling method based on three weight matrices,with the construction of a spatial lag model and a spatial error model to analyze the impact of housing prices and housing price-to-income ratios on urbanization.The conclusions are as follows:1)The spatial autocorrelation and spatial dependence of housing prices,housing price-to-income ratios and the three types of urbanization are significant,and there are spatial spillover effects and"Matthew effect".House prices have a significant positive effect on population urbanization,economic urbanization and land urbanization.2)The effect of house prices on population urbanization presents an inverted"U"shape,while the effect of house prices on economic urbanization and land urbanization presents linear characteristic.3)The housing price-to-income ratio has a positive impact on population urbanization,and the housing price-to-income ratio has an inverted U-shaped impact on economic urbanization and land urbanization.4)From a regional perspective,the increase in housing prices in the eastern and central regions has a positive impact on population urbanization,while it has a negative impact on the western region;the central region’s housing price-to-income ratio has no significant impact on population urbanization,yet it has a has a positive effect in the west and negative in the east;The urbanization of the central and western regions has the largest spillover effect.
作者
陈瑶
陈湘满
CHEN Yao;CHEN Xiangman(Business School,Xiangtan University,Xiangtan 411105,Hunan,China)
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第4期57-65,共9页
Economic Geography
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(20BJL078)
关键词
房价
房价收入比
城镇化
空间效应
housing price
housing price-to-income ratio
urbanization
spatial effect
