摘要
根据电网项目提质增效和精准投资的新要求,统筹考虑变电站项目建设的特点,本文引入实物期权理论,构建实物期权无风险利率测算模型和变电站工程分期建设投资决策模型,提出变电站分期建设投资阈值的确定方法,优化变电站分期建设和投资决策。并以某地110kV变电站建设项目投资决策为例,对所建模型方法进行了实际应用。研究结果表明:所创建的投资决策模型可有效应用于优化变电工程分期建设投资时序,为变电工程分期建设投资科学决策提供新型工具。
According to the new requirements of improving the quality and efficiency of power grid projects and precision investment,and considering the characteristics of substation project construction,this paper introduces real option theory,constructs real option risk-free interest rate calculation model and substation project phased construction investment decision model,and proposes substation The method for determining the investment threshold of the phased construction optimizes the phased construction and investment decision-making of the substation.Taking the investment decision of a 110 kV substation construction project in a certain place as an example,the established model method was applied in practice.The research results show that the investment decision model created can be effectively applied to optimize the phased construction investment sequence of substation projects,and provide a new tool for scientific decision-making on phased construction investment of substation projects.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2021年第3期91-95,共5页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
北京市自然科学基金资助项目《北京市可再生能源资源时空分异特征对分布式能源建设的适应度研究》(8192043)
国家电网湖北省电力公司科技项目《湖北电网工程分期建设综合效益分析与投资优化决策系统研究》(HB1942-507)
关键词
变电站工程
分期建设
实物期权
投资决策
substation engineering
phased construction
real option
investment decision
