摘要
现阶段,中国人口老龄化的加速削弱了人口红利,人口发展问题备受关注。本文基于2001-2018年我国省级面板数据,通过基准线性回归考察了各类因素对人口出生率的影响。通过构建以卫生医疗水平、人力资本水平和经济发展水平为门限变量的门限模型分析发现:随着卫生医疗水平、人力资本水平的提高,跨越门限值后生育保险对人口出生率的促进作用进一步增强;随着经济发展水平的提高,跨越门限值后生育保险对人口出生率的促进作用有所减弱。
At this stage,the acceleration of China’s aging population has weakened the demographic dividend,and the issue of population development has attracted much attention.Based on the provincial panel data from 2001 to 2017,this paper examines the impact of various factors on the birth rate of the population through benchmark linear regression.By constructing a threshold model analysis using health care level,human capital level,and economic development level as threshold variables,it is found that with the increase of health care level and human capital level,the promotion of maternity insurance on the birth rate of the population is further enhanced after crossing the threshold;With the improvement of the level of economic development,the promotion of maternity insurance on the birth rate of the population has weakened after crossing the threshold.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2019年第11期53-56,共4页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金地区项目(编号:71363051)
新疆大学经济与管理学院丝路基金项目(JGSL18024).
关键词
人口出生率
社会保险
人口抚养比
社会发展状况
Birth rate
Social insurance
Population dependency ratio
Social development status
