摘要
Natural hazard-triggered technological accidents(Natechs)refer to accidents involving releases of hazardous materials(hazmat)triggered by natural hazards.Huge economic losses,as well as human health and environmental problems are caused by Natechs.In this regard,learning from previous Natechs is critical for risk management.However,due to data scarcity and high uncertainty concerning such hazards,it becomes a serious challenge for risk managers to detect Natechs from large databases,such as the National Response Center(NRC)database.As the largest database of hazmat release incidents,the NRC database receives hazmat release reports from citizens in the United States.However,callers often have incomplete details about the incidents they are reporting.This results in many records having incomplete information.Consequently,it is quite difficult to identify and extract Natechs accurately and efficiently.In this study,we introduce machine learning theory into the Natech retrieving research,and a Semi-Intelligent Natech Identification Framework(SINIF)is proposed in order to solve the problem.We tested the suitability of two supervised machine learning algorithms,namely the Long ShortTerm Memory(LSTM)and the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN),and selected the former for the development of the SINIF.According to the results,the SINIF is efficient(a total number of 826,078 records were analyzed)and accurate(the accuracy is over 0.90),while 32,841 Natech reports between 1990 and 2017 were extracted from the NRC database.Furthermore,the majority of those Natech reports(97.85%)were related to meteorological phenomena,with hurricanes(24.41%),heavy rains(19.27%),and storms(18.29%)as the main causes of these reported Natechs.Overall,this study suggests that risk managers can benefit immensely from SINIF in analyzing Natech data from large databases efficiently.
基金
supported in part by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science(Kaken Grant 17K01336,April 2017–March 2020)
the China Scholarship Council(CSC No.201606620007)
the Ministry of Education,Culture,Sports,Science,and Technology of Japan(Monbukagakusho:MEXT Scholarship No.171572,2017–2021)
the Ministry of Education,Culture,Sports,Science,and Technology of Japan(Monbukagakusho:MEXT scholarship,2019–2022)
