摘要
目的探讨北京市朝阳区近地面O_(3)短期暴露对人群死亡的急性效应。方法采用对数线性广义相加模型和分布滞后效应模型研究2018年1月1日至2019年12月31日北京市朝阳区O_(3)日最大1 h平均(O_(3,1h-max))和O_(3)日最大8 h平均(O_(3,8h-max))短期暴露与每日非意外死亡、呼吸系统和心血管系统疾病死亡的关系以及滞后效应,并采用亚组分析探讨敏感人群。结果单污染物模型结果显示,O_(3,8h-max)每升高10μLg/m^(3)所致总人群和>75岁人群非意外死亡风险明显增加,分别增加0.43%(95%CI:0.04%~0.82%)和0.67%(95%CI:0.16%~1.18%);对应的O_(3,1h-max)所致非意外死亡人数增加效应与O_(3,8h-max)相似。O_(3,1h-max)和O_(3,8h-max)浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),人群呼吸系统疾病死亡风险分别增加0.14%和0.00%,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);人群心血管系统疾病死亡风险分别增加0.52%和0.52%,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。O_(3,1h-max)和O_(3,8h-max)浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),年龄>75岁人群当日心血管系统疾病死亡风险明显增加0.90%(95%CI:0.15%~1.65%)和0.92%(95%CI:0.08%~1.76%)。结论研究区域内近地面O_(3)暴露可能增加人群每日非意外死亡风险,尤其是年龄>75岁人群。O_(3)浓度变化对人群呼吸系统疾病和心血管系统疾病死亡的影响未观察到相关性。O_(3)浓度增加可能明显增加年龄>75岁人群的心血管系统疾病死亡风险。
Objective To explore the effects of ground-level ozone exposure on daily mortality in Chaoyang,Beijing.Methods The data of air pollution,mereorological,and mortality in Chaoyang,Beijing were collected during Jan.1,2018-Dec.31,2019.The correlation between ozone concentration and non-accidental mortality,respiratory diseases and cardiovascular diseases mortality were analyzed by generalized additive model and distributed linear models of time-series analysis.The effect of shortterm ozone exposure on non-accidental mortality,respiratory diseases and cardiovascular diseases mortality were explored by gender and age.Results In single pollutant model,an increase of 10μg/m^(3)in 8 h maximum concentration of ozone(O_(3,8h-max))concentration significantly raised total non-accidental mortality and non-accidental mortality of group over 75-year old risks by 0.43%(95%CI:0.04%-0.82%)and 0.67%(95%CI:0.16%-1.18%),respectively.The correlation between 1 h maximum concentration of ozone(O_(3,1h-max))and increase of non-accidental mortality were observed similarly to O_(3,8h-max).As O_(3,1h-max)and O_(3,8h-max)increased by 10μg/m^(3),respiratory diseases mortality increased by 0.14%and 0.00%(P>0.05);cardiovascular diseases mortality increased by 0.52%and 0.52%(P>0.05).When O_(3,1h-max)and O_(3,8h-max)increased by 10μg/m^(3),cardiovascular diseases mortality of residents aged over 75 increased by 0.90%(95%CI:0.15%-1.65%),0.92%(95%CI:0.08%-1.76%).Conclusion Ground-level ozone has adverse effects on daily mortality,especially for residents aged over 75 in Chaoyang,Beijing.Ozone exposure did not show significant effect on respiratory diseases and cardiovascular diseases mortality.For different groups,the increased risk of cardiovascular diseases mortality of residents aged over 75 was significantly associated with the increase of ground-level ozone.
作者
张海霞
李文静
孙灵利
孟海英
李奕奉
张美云
ZHANG Hai-xia;LI Wen-jing;SUN Ling-li;MENG Hai-ying;LI Yi-feng;ZHANG Mei-yun(Department of Environmental Health,Beijing Chaoyang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 100021,China)
出处
《环境与健康杂志》
CAS
2024年第2期128-133,共6页
Journal of Environment and Health
基金
2018年度北京市优秀人才培养资助青年骨干个人项目
