摘要
基于山西北部地区20个气象站1981-2018年降水数据,采用Mann-Kendall突变检验法、经验正交函数(EOF)以及马尔科夫模型等对降水时空分布格局进行研究和预测.结果表明:从时间变化看,年和四季降水,除春季外均呈上升趋势,但仅有秋季降水趋势达到显著性水平;Mann-Kendall突变分析表明,秋季降水在2006年开始发生由少变多的显著性突变;年和四季降水具有6~14 a主周期变化.从空间分布看,年均降水量具有东南及西部山区降水多,中北部盆地降水少的特征;降水空间格局以全域一致偏旱或偏涝型以及南北旱涝相反型为主.用马尔科夫模型预测未来5 a降水类型,主要以"正常"状态出现.
Based on the precipitation data of 20 meteorological stations in northern Shanxi Province from 1981 to 2018,Mann Kendall mutation test,empirical orthogonal function(EOF)and Markov model were used to study and predict the spatial and temporal distribution pattern of precipitation.The results show that:From the perspective of time changes,except for spring,the annual and four seasons of precipitation all show an upward trend,but only the autumn precipitation trend reaches a significant level;the precipitation in autumn started to change significantly from less to more in 2006 by the M-K mutation analysis;annual and seasonal precipitation has a major period of 6-14 years.In the perspective of spatial distribution,the average annual precipitation has the characteristics of more precipitation in the southeast and western mountainous areas and less in the central and northern basin parts;the spatial pattern of precipitation is dominated by the pattern of uniform drought or waterlogging and the opposite drought and flooding in the south and the north.The precipitation type in the next five years will appear in"normal"state based on the Markov model.
作者
钞锦龙
胡磊
雷添杰
吴林栋
王娜
CHAO Jinlong;HU Lei;LEI Tianjie;WU Lindong;WANG Na(School of Geography Science,Taiyuan Normal University,Shanxi Jinzhong 030619,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Shanxi Meteorological Information Center,Shanxi Jinzhong 030619,China)
出处
《河南大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2021年第2期127-137,共11页
Journal of Henan University:Natural Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41601569)
2020年度山西省高等学校哲学社会科学资助项目(10200614)
2020年山西省社科联项目(SSKLZDKT202110)
