摘要
探讨社会稳定风险评估的前提是厘清何为社会稳定风险,本文首先基于社会结构异质化程度和生产技术水平两个维度构建社会稳定风险的类型学分析框架,从历史演变的视角廓清新时期社会稳定风险的具体指向;在此基础上基于新时期社会稳定风险的特征提出引入循证性评估理念和方法,并对评估数据的收集与挖掘、评估证据的转化与存储及应用进行分析,以期为社会稳定风险评估的实践提供方法借鉴。
The premise of discussing social stability risk assessment is to clarify what social stability risk is.Firstly,this paper constructs a typological analysis framework of social stability risk based on the degree of heterogeneity of social structure and the level of production technology,and outlines the specific direction of social stability risk in the fresh period from the perspective of historical evolution.Based on the characteristics of social stability risk in the new era,the paper proposes the introduction of evidence-based assessment concept and method,and analyzes the collection and mining of assessment data,the transformation,storage,analysis and application of assessment evidence,so as to provide reference for the practice of social stability risk assessment.
作者
李宇环
邓甜
李莎莉
Li Yuhuan;Deng Tian;Li Shali
出处
《风险灾害危机研究》
2021年第1期107-122,共16页
Journal of Risk, Disaster & Crisis Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“大数据时代重大公共政策社会稳定风险评估:理论模型与实证检验”(项目编号:71804207)
2017年北京市优秀人才资助计划项目
2019年中央财经大学一流学科建设项目“新时代公共部门战略与绩效管理理论创新研究”
中央财经大学青年英才项目(项目编号:QYP1903)的阶段性研究成果
关键词
社会稳定风险
演化脉络
循证性风险评估
Social Stability Risk
Evolutionary Context
Evidence Based Risk Assessment
