摘要
对流触发(CI)一直是强对流天气预报中至关重要而又充满挑战的环节。在CI发生之前,高时空分辨率的天气雷达和静止气象卫星常能够观测识别到边界层辐合线和积云快速发展等用于评估CI发生条件的前兆信号,从而为定时定点的CI临近预报提供有力观测支撑。基于此,综述了雷达和卫星在CI观测研究和临近预报技术上的运用进展。首先回顾了近40年来CI观测研究中的里程碑工作以及最新的研究进展,结合CI发生条件梳理了CI研究方式和内容及其随雷达和卫星探测能力提升而呈现的发展趋势。进而介绍了较为成熟的3种基于雷达和卫星观测的CI业务临近预报技术在国际范围内的发展运用。最后提出雷达和卫星观测在CI研究和预报运用中需要进一步解决的问题。
Convection often produces severe weather which causes a great loss to human lives and properties.Precisely predicting the convection initiation process is crucial but challenging in operational convection nowcasting(0~2 h forecasting).Before the radar-defined CI occurring(e.g.,the first occurrence of≥35 dBZ echoes),observations at high spatial and temporal resolutions from weather radars and geostationary meteorological satellites can reveal precursor information such as the boundary-layer convergence lines and the rapid growth of newborn cumulus clouds.These radar-and satellite-observed precursor information are helpful for evaluating the pre-CI conditions and thus nowcasting the accurate CI timing and location.This paper reviewed the current status of radar-and satellite-based CI research and nowcasting techniques.The milestone works and the following studies in the last four decades were summarized to demonstrate how radar and satellite observations can be related to CI occurrence.The objectives and approaches of the CI research advance as the improvement in the capability of radars and were explained satellites.The research progress aids in the development of various CI nowcasting techniques.This paper introduced three well-established techniques that have been put into operational application,namely,ANC system,SATCAST algorithm,and UWCI algorithm.Some scientific issues with respect to radar-and satellite-based CI research and nowcasting were also presented.
作者
黄亦鹏
李万彪
赵玉春
白兰强
Huang Yipeng;Li Wanbiao;Zhao Yuchun;Bai Lanqiang(Laboratory of Straits Meteorology,Xiamen Meteorological Bureau,Xiamen 361012,China;Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,School of Physics,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)
出处
《地球科学进展》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第12期1273-1287,共15页
Advances in Earth Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“海峡西岸前汛期暖区MCSs形成前的对流云发展特征研究”(编号:41905049)
福建省气象局开放式基金项目“福建对流触发前边界层辐合线和积云发展特征”(编号:2019KX01)资助.
关键词
对流触发
天气雷达
静止气象卫星
临近预报
Convection initiation
Weather radars
Geostationary meteorological satellites
Nowcasting
