摘要
博弈分析在不确定性环境下投资预期导致行业产能过剩的机理,得:在投产阶段存在14种投资预期模式,在生产阶段对应产生14种产能结构模式。由此可揭示行业结构性产能扩张和结构性产能过剩并发的成本预期机理和需求预期机理,为:在投产阶段,关于未来的生产成本和市场需求,若有企业虽能准确预期自己,但却错误预期对手,则在生产阶段,当初错误预期对手的企业和被对手错误预期的企业,其中一家的产能扩张导致行业产能扩张,另一家的产能过剩导致行业产能过剩。在学理上,既有理论揭示企业错误预期自己能够导致行业产能过剩,本文进一步理论揭示:企业错误预期对手也能导致行业产能过剩。在实践上,基于该理论,为规避行业产能过剩,分别从观念启示、决策启示、行动启示三个层面就如何尽量减轻系统性预期偏误和偶然性预期偏误给出对策建议。
The game theory analyzes the mechanism of excess capacity caused by investment expectation in uncertain environment,and concludes that there are 14 expectation modes in the investment stage and 14 capacity structure modes in the production stage.The modes reveal the cost expectation mechanism and demand expectation mechanism of structural capacity expansion and structural excess capacity:In the investment stage,with regard to the future production cost and market demand,if the firm can accurately predict itself but mistakenly anticipates its rival,then in the production stage,the firms that had mistakenly expected the competitor and the firm that had been mistakenly expected by the competitor,one of which led to the expansion of industrial capacity,the other led to the excess capacity of the industry.In theory,existing theories have revealed that firms'wrong expectation of themselves can lead to excess capacity in the industry;this study goes further and reveals that firms'wrong expectation of competitors can also lead to excess capacity in the industry.In practice,based on this theory,in order to avoid the excess capacity of the industry,this paper gives countermeasures on how to reduce the systematic and accidental expected errors from three aspects of concept,decision and action.
作者
徐齐利
XU Qili(School of Economics,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China)
出处
《产业组织评论》
2021年第4期88-134,共47页
Industrial Organization Review
基金
北京市社会科学基金项目(18GLA003,20JJC029)
北京市教科委科研项目(SM201910038003)
北京市优秀人才青年拔尖团队项目(2017000026833TD0)
国家自然科学基金项目(72263012)
关键词
产能过剩
不确定性
投资预期
成本预期
需求预期
excess capacity
uncertainty
investment expectation
cost expectation
demand expectation
