摘要
新冠肺炎疫情暴发使宏观经济不确定性达到历史新高,不确定性对宏观经济的影响不断加大,保就业、保市场主体和保物价稳定成为当前经济工作的重点。文章通过构建TVP-SVVAR和DSGE模型,从企业预防性定价和居民失业风险两个角度出发,分析了不确定性影响宏观经济的机制。研究表明:第一,不确定性冲击会导致经济在短期内进入滞胀状态,而长期陷入通缩。其中,短期通胀上升主要是因为企业预防性定价在不确定性对宏观经济的影响中起主导作用,而长期通缩则是因为失业风险所导致的居民有效需求下降。第二,模型模拟显示,在遭遇不确定性冲击后,存在失业风险的居民消费复苏得慢,没有失业风险的居民消费复苏得快。第三,总量上,宽松的货币政策能够有效减缓不确定性对经济的负面影响,但同时存在明显的边际递减效应;结构上,搭配不同的财政政策能够有效缓解异质性居民之间的福利损失。
Since the outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic,the global economy has fallen into recession and the unemployment rate of all countries has risen sharply.Although the epidemic has been effectively controlled in China,the epidemic abroad is still severe,and China’s economy still faces great uncertainties in the future.How to reduce the impact of the uncertainty caused by extreme events on China’s macro economy and promote the steady recovery of China’s economy under the condition of uncertainty has gradually become the focus of attention.This paper analyzes the impact of uncertainty on China’s macro economy by constructing TVP-SV-VAR,and then makes clear the influence mechanism of uncertainty on the macro economy by constructing the DSGE model.The results show that:Firstly,the impact of uncertainty will lead to inflation in the short term and deflation in the long term.Short-term inflation is mainly due to precautionary pricing,while long-term deflation is mainly due to the decline of effective demand caused by unemployment risk.Secondly,the consumption of residents with unemployment risk recovers slowly,while that of residents without unemployment risk recovers quickly.Thirdly,easy monetary stimulus can alleviate the negative impact of uncertainty on the economy more effectively,while supportive fiscal policy can alleviate the welfare loss among heterogeneous residents more accurately and effectively.The following policy suggestions are put forward:Firstly,government departments should take into account the impact of uncertainty caused by the epidemic.They should adhere to a positive and prudent monetary policy,strengthen communication with central banks,and stabilize the confidence of market subjects,so as to reduce the impact of uncertainty caused by the epidemic on the macro economy.Secondly,under the impact of uncertainty,due to the short-term inflation caused by precautionary pricing,monetary policy should reduce the reserve ratio and interest rate in a timely manner to slow down the cost of enterprises,stabilize the earnings of enterprises,and then reduce the incentive of enterprises to prevent pricing,so as to stabilize inflation.Thirdly,when dealing with the impact of uncertainty,fiscal policy should also play a role,especially through the targeted issuance of consumer vouchers to alleviate the budget constraints of middle and low income groups,stimulate consumer demand,and alleviate the consumption polarization under the impact of uncertainty.Fourthly,the government should further strengthen the construction of the labor market,improve the employment service system,and establish a reasonable unemployment insurance system,so as to shorten the time for residents to find a job and reduce the impact of the uncertainty of future income on resident consumption.The contributions of this paper are mainly reflected in the following aspects:Firstly,existing studies on China’s uncertainty believe that the economy will immediately enter a state of deflation after the impact of uncertainty;while this paper finds that the economy will briefly enter the state of inflation,and then enter the state of deflation.It explains this phenomenon by establishing a DSGE model.Secondly,existing studies do not clarify the role of pricing decision in the impact of uncertainty on China’s macro economy;while this paper clarifies the role of pricing decision in the impact of uncertainty on the macro economy,and further analyzes the pricing mechanism.Thirdly,this paper conducts a policy analysis based on a theoretical model containing unemployment risk and uncertainty impact,and finds that monetary policy can better mitigate the negative impact of uncertainty on the macro economy,and fiscal policy can better balance the welfare loss among different residents.
作者
王博
徐飘洋
Wang Bo;Xu Piaoyang(School of Finance,Nankai University,Tianjin 300350,China)
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第5期19-33,共15页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72073076,71873070)
南开大学文科基金重点项目(ZB21BZ0103)
关键词
不确定性
经济波动
企业预防性定价
失业风险
uncertainty
economic fluctuations
precautionary pricing
unemployment risk
