摘要
文章以2019新冠肺炎疫情(COVID-19)导致的全国范围停工停产为自然实验,采用广义DID方法研究了产业结构对空气质量改善的影响,在排除了混杂因素与遗漏变量的内生性后有效识别了导致空气污染的主要产业。研究发现:对空气质量的影响主要源于第二产业,在停工环境下,其占GDP比重每上升1%,空气质量指数相较于上年同期下降0.470;第二产业内部细分行业对空气质量影响最大的是制造业,且制造业中轻工业的影响系数高于装备制造业与能源化工业;采矿业与建筑业对空气污染的影响并不显著;而由于疫情期间的生活需求增加代替了停工减少的工业需求,水电气热生活供应业对空气质量改善的影响并不显著。同时,文章还发现生产过程对第二产业的污染贡献度高于第三产业;在制造业内部,轻工业受员工通勤因素影响相对更高,而能源化工业受生产过程影响更甚。因此,文章提出:第一,从实现"碳达峰、碳中和"的产业结构调整途径来看,需重视第二产业内部结构调整的重要性,加强对工业尤其是轻工业、能源化工等制造业污染"大户"的防治;第二,产业结构的调整与环境治理需要因城而异,充分考虑自身所处的经济发展阶段与地理气候条件;第三,在推行制造业,特别是高端制造业"回归"的同时,要始终坚持内部结构优化的理念,在权衡产业发展和环境治理时要守住高质量发展的底线,避免短视化行为。
Promoting the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure and promoting the transformation of traditional extensive production mode and consumption mode to green and low-carbon is an important embodiment of the concept of innovation and green development,and an important way to realize the work of"carbon emission peak,carbon neutralization".Identifying the impact of industrial structure characteristics on environmental pollution and exploring how to effectively reduce the impact on the environment by industrial structure transformation and upgrading are an important basis for precise policy implementation and realizing the synergistic effect of industrial structure adjustment and environmental governance.In response to the inadequacy of previous studies in dealing with the endogenous problem between industrial structure and environmental pollution,based on the weekly air quality index(AQI)of prefecture-level cities in China during nearly three months around the Spring Festival in 2019 and 2020,this paper takes COVID-19-induced production shutdown as a natural experiment to study the impact of industrial structure on air quality and identify the major industries that cause air pollution with the generalized DID method.The study finds that:The impact on air quality mainly comes from the secondary industry.In the shutdown environment,the AQI decreases by 0.470%when the proportion of secondary industry in GDP increases by 1%compared with the same period of last year.The impact of the internal subdivisions of the secondary industry on air quality also presents great differences,among which the manufacturing industry has the greatest impact,and the influence coefficient of light industry in the manufacturing industry is higher than that of equipment manufacturing industry and energy chemical industry.The impact of mining and construction on air pollution is not significant.Life supply industry such as water,electricity,gas and so on shows no significant impact on air quality improvement as increased demand for living during the epidemic replaced reduced industrial demand for work.At the same time,this paper also finds that different industries have great differences in the path dependence on air quality,and the production process of the secondary industry has a relatively higher contribution to pollution.Within the manufacturing industry,light industry is relatively more affected by commuting factors,while energy and chemical industry is more affected by production process factors.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward some suggestions:First,from the perspective of industrial structure adjustment to achieve"carbon emission peak,carbon neutralization",it is necessary to pay attention to the importance of the internal structure adjustment of the secondary industry,and strengthen the prevention and control of the manufacturing industry,especially light industry,energy and chemical industry,etc.Second,the adjustment of industrial structure and environmental governance need to vary from city to city,fully considering the economic development stages and geographical and climatic conditions.Third,while promoting the"return"of the manufacturing industry,especially the high-end manufacturing industry,we should always adhere to the concept of internal structure optimization,and keep the bottom line of highquality development when balancing industrial development and environmental governance.This paper provides a practical basis for realizing the industrial structure adjustment of"carbon emission peak,carbon neutralization".
作者
余典范
李斯林
周腾军
Yu Dianfan;Li Silin;Zhou Tengjun(College of Business,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第3期19-34,共16页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(20BJY039)
上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2020110452)
上海市人民政府重大决策咨询课题(2020110453)
