摘要
主要运用文献资料法、数理统计法,对冬奥会举办国奖牌获得的地利优势进行研究,通过举办当届与非举办届得金、得牌对比,发现冬季奥运会举办国优势普遍存在,进而对历届冬奥会举办国得金、得牌优势进行量化,得出得金优势均值为1.329,得牌优势均值为0.854。为了进一步了解举办国优势特点,对不同历史阶段、不同所属集团、不同所在地区、不同优势项目与不同竞争强度举办国的举办国优势数量特征进行了比较,对不同维度特点进行了总结。根据各维度举办国优势数量特征,对2022年我国优势进行推导,得出得金优势区间为[1.329,2.203],得牌优势区间为[0.854,1.117],结合我国冬奥会非举办届预测数据,从而推导出我国在2022年冬奥会将获得的金牌区间为[5,8],奖牌区间为[16,20],如果能实现预测目标,我国将攀升至第二集团前三甲,总体金牌榜牌排名4~7名的位置。但是,据现阶段我国冬奥会优势与潜优势项目实力情况,要想顺利实现预测目标尚存在一定难度。我国要在保持优势项目的基础上,进一步扩展潜优势项目与新兴项目,培育金牌新增长点,提高备战科学化水平,借鉴夏季优势项目备战经验,构建新的激励机制。通过对2022年冬奥会我国军团竞争实力进行预测,并提出建议,以其为冬奥会备战、参赛、组织管理等方面提供参考。
By using the methods of literature and mathematical statistics,taking the advantage of the host region of the Winter Olympic Games as the research object,through the comparison of the gold medal and the medal of the host country and the non host country,it is found that the advantage of the host country of the Winter Olympic Games is universal;and the gold medal and the medal advantage of the host country of the previous Winter Olympic Games are quantified,the average value of the gold medal advantage is 1.329,and the average value of the medal advantage is0.854.In order to further understand the advantages of host countries,this paper compares the advantages of host countries in different historical stages,different groups,different regions,different advantage projects and different competition intensities,and summarizes the characteristics of different dimensions.According to the number of advantages of host countries in each dimension,the paper deduces the advantages of China in 2022,and concludes that the gold medal winning advantage is from 1.329 to 2.203,and the medal winning advantage interval is from 0.854 to1.117;combined with the forecast data of non hosting Winter Olympic Games in China,the number of gold medals that China will win in 2022 Winter Olympic Games is from 5 to 8,and the medal number is from 16 to 20;if the predicted goal can be achieved,China will climb to the top three of the second group,ranking 4-7 in the overall gold medal table.However,according to the advantages and potential strengths of the current Winter Olympic Games in China,it is still difficult to achieve the predicted goal.On the basis of maintaining the advantage projects,we should further expand the potential advantage projects and emerging projects,cultivate new growth points of gold medals,improve the scientific level of preparation for war,learn from the experience of preparation for summer advantage projects,and build a new incentive mechanism.Based on the prediction of the competitive strength of the Chinese team in 2022 Winter Olympic Games,this paper puts forward some suggestions to provide references for the preparation,participation,organization and management of the Winter Olympic Games.
作者
唐丽
吴希林
TANG li;WU Xi-lin(Physical Education Institute of Jishou University,Jishou 416000,Hunan China;Coach Academy of General Sport Administration,Beijing 100084,China)
出处
《北京体育大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第10期36-45,52,共11页
Journal of Beijing Sport University
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目:国际比较视野下中国教练员教育培训转型的研究(2018ZD003).
关键词
冬奥会
得金比
得牌比
举办国优势
奖牌预测
备战目标
Winter Olympic Games
gold medal winning ratio
medal winning ratio
advantages of host country
medal prediction
Olympic prepare goal
