摘要
世界能源结构包含"能源体系结构"和"能源系列结构"两个层次,分别对应能源结构的代际和代内转型。人类发展已临近文明奇点,这轮能源结构转型布局需要同时兼顾从石油主导的传统能源系列向天然气主导的低碳能源系列转型,以及从化石能源体系向核能能源体系转型,涉及千年之大变局。作为工业文明纪元的最后一种世界主导性能源,天然气承载着能源文明,并在世界能源体系结构转型中充当着重要的桥梁作用。经合组织主要国家的能源结构转型具有"中高基值、双增长和单替代"特征;如果为双替代,则分段错峰。其中,不参与结构调整的能源转型基系主要包括清洁化石能源、水电和安全核能,三者在国家一次能源结构中的占比为50%~60%;双增长主要指天然气和可再生能源;单替代主要指煤炭等不符合低碳发展的化石能源。这些国家的碳排放达峰主要为产业结构、能源结构、人口结构、节能减排技术四大因素的综合效应,其中首要因素是产业结构调整和节能减排技术进步。需要围绕保障能源供给安全、传承能源文明和创建核能时代新优势开展能源结构转型。中国一次能源消费将长期保持温和增长,预计2050年将达到38亿~43亿吨油当量;同期将实现从"煤炭为主体、石油为主导"的中高碳能源系列向"清洁化石能源为主体、多能并举"的低碳能源系列转型;清洁化石能源和零碳能源在一次能源结构中占比约为60%。建议充分发挥天然气、可再生能源、小型核反应堆在能源结构转型中的桥梁作用,采用"1+4+10"的立体战略结构,沿5条战略发展路线,分3个阶段,并行推进、有机协同。
The world energy structure consists of such two levels as energy system structure and energy series structure,which correspond to the intergenerational and intra-generational transformation of energy structure respectively.As human development is approaching the singularity of civilization,the current energy structure transformation needs to take into account both the transformation from oil-dominated energy series to natural-gas-dominated clean energy series,and the transformation from fossil energy system to nuclear energy system,which involves the great change of the millennium.As the last world dominant energy,natural gas bears the energy civilization and plays a bridge in the world energy structure transformation.The energy structure transformation of major OECD countries is characterized by"medium to high base value,double growth and single substitution",or off-peak in time segment if it is a double substitution.Among them,the energy transformation base systems that do not participate in structural adjustment mainly include clean fossil energy,hydropower,and safe nuclear energy,which account for 50%-60%of the country’s primary energy structure.So-called the double growth mainly refers to natural gas and renewable energy and the single substitution mainly refers to coal and other fossil fuels that do not conform to low-carbon development.The carbon emission peak of these countries mainly comes from the comprehensive effect of industrial structure,energy structure,population structure,energy conservation,and emission reduction technology,among which the primary factor is the adjustment of industrial structure and the progress of energy conservation and emission reduction technology.It is necessary to carry out structural transformation with the focus on ensuring energy supply security,inheriting energy civilization,and creating new advantages in the era of nuclear energy.China’s primary energy consumption will continue to grow moderately for a long period of time,and is expected to reach 3.8 billion to 4.3 billion tons of oil equivalents in 2050.Meanwhile,it will realize the transformation from a series of medium and high carbon energy sources dominated by"coal and oil"to a series of low carbon energy sources dominated by"clean fossil energy and multi-energy simultaneous".The energy base system is mainly composed of clean fossil energy and zero carbon energy,which accounts for 60%of the primary energy structure.It is suggested giving full play to the bridge role of natural gas,renewable energy,and miniature nuclear reactors in the energy structure transformation,adopting the three-dimensional strategic structure of"1+4+10",and carrying out in three stages in parallel with organic coordination along the five strategic development routes.
作者
张映红
ZHANG Yinghong(Oil&Gas Professional Committee of China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation)
出处
《国际石油经济》
2021年第2期1-15,共15页
International Petroleum Economics
关键词
能源结构
转型
能源替代
能源文明
能源转型基系
能源转型基值
煤炭
石油
天然气
核能
可再生能源
碳减排
碳中和
energy structure
transformation
energy substitution
energy civilization
energy transition base system
energy transition base value
coal
oil
natural gas
nuclear power
renewable energy
carbon emissions reduction
carbon neutral
