摘要
中国主动提出力争二氧化碳排放在2030年前达到峰值、2060年前努力争取碳中和这一极具力度的目标,对能源发展提出了新要求。基于所开发的"世界与中国能源展望模型",通过设定碳排放约束,系统模拟2060年实现碳中和目标的中国能源减排及转型路径。研究结果表明,当前发展模式下(即参考情景下),中国实现碳中和目标面临较大的挑战和难度,中国能源体系须更早、更大力度转型。碳中和情景下,中国能源相关碳排放须于2025年前后达峰,2050年降至24亿吨左右,脱碳路径从边际减排成本低或为负的行业推进,电力和工业部门是减排的重点和优先领域。能源系统须加快低碳转型,一次能源需求在2035年前后达峰,非化石能源成为新增用能的主要来源,并加速对传统化石能源的替代,2050年占比将达到65.6%。为实现碳中和目标,中国应强化节能优先战略,推动能源消费尽早达峰,同时,统筹能源安全与低碳转型关系,打造多元、有韧性的低碳能源供给体系。
China has taken the initiative to strive for the extremely strong goal of reaching a peak by 2030 and being carbon neutrality by 2060,which brings the requirements to energy development.Based on the World and China Energy Outlook Model,this study systematically simulates the carbon reduction and energy transition pathways to achieve the 2060 carbon neutral goal by setting carbon emission constraints.The results indicate that under the current energy development and carbon emission trends(i.e.,the reference scenario),the realization of carbon neutrality is still facing severe challenges and difficulties,and China’s energy system needs transform much earlier and more aggressively.Under the carbon neutral scenario,China’s energy-related carbon emissions peak around 2025,falling to around 2.4 billion tons in 2050.A more realistic pathway to decarbonization will have lower or negative marginal emission reduction costs and power and industrial sectors are the focus and priority areas of emission reduction.The energy system is accelerating its transition to low-carbon,primary energy demand will peak around 2035,and non-fossil energy will become the main source of newly increased energy consumption and accelerate the replacement of traditional fossil energy,accounting for 65.6%in 2050.In order to achieve carbon neutrality,China should emphasize the priority strategy for energy conservation,facilitate the energy consumption to reach the peak as soon as possible.At the same time,it should coordinate the relationship between energy security and low-carbon transition to create a diversified and resilient low-carbon energy supply system.
作者
王利宁
彭天铎
向征艰
戴家权
黄伟隆
WANG Lining;PENG Tianduo;XIANG Zhengjian;DAI Jiaquan;HUANG Weilong(CNPC Economics&Technology Research Institute;Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Market Simulation and Price Forecast,CNPC;Guangdong Technology Financial Group Co.,Ltd.)
出处
《国际石油经济》
2021年第1期2-8,共7页
International Petroleum Economics
基金
中国石油天然气集团有限公司规划计划部课题“世界与中国能源展望研究”
中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2020M682645)
关键词
碳中和
能源转型
转型路径
清洁低碳
能源消费
carbon neutrality
energy transition
transition path
clean and low-carbon
energy consumption
