摘要
本文基于2000—2015年中国海关出口数据和技术性贸易措施通报数据,采用双重差分法考察了美国技术性贸易措施对中国企业出口行为的影响。研究表明,技术性贸易措施会显著降低企业受冲击产品的出口额和出口数量。基于异质性的视角,技术性贸易措施对一般贸易企业和消费品负面影响较大。进一步的二元边际机制检验表明,美国技术性贸易措施对企业出口行为的影响主要表现在扩展边际,使得出口目的国市场的新进入、新增产品和退出企业数量都显著下降;对于单个企业,技术性贸易措施使得企业退出市场的概率提升,使新进入和新增产品企业进入市场的概率降低,而对存续企业的出口负面影响不显著。最后,企业全要素生产率、资本密集度和每年新增实际投资的提高能缓解技术性贸易措施对企业出口的负面冲击。本文较好地解决了贸易偏转效应和产品偏转效应对回归结果造成的估计偏误问题,考察了技术性贸易措施对出口企业的一般性影响,为中国企业预防出口面临的不确定性风险和冲击提供经验证据。
Based on 2000-2015 China Customs data and the notification measures of technical barriers to trade(TBT),this paper uses the difference-in-difference approach to explore the impact of U.S.technical barriers to trade on Chinese enterprises’export behavior.The empirical results show that TBT will significantly reduce the export volume and quantity of impacted products.From the perspective of heterogeneity,TBT has a greater negative impact on general trading enterprises and consumer goods.Further,the impact of TBT is mainly manifested in the extensive margin,which makes the number of new products,newcomers,and quitters in destination market significantly decrease.From the perspective of single enterprise,TBT results in an increase probability of exiting from the market and a decrease probability of new products and newcomers entering,while the impact on the export of survivals is not significant.Finally,the improvement of total factor productivity,capital intensity and annual new real investment can alleviate the negative impact of TBT on the export of enterprises.This paper solves the estimation error caused by trade deflection effect and product deflection effect,investigates the general impact of technical trade measures on export enterprises,and provides empirical evidence for Chinese enterprises to prevent the uncertainty risk and impact of TBT.
作者
陈雯
范茵子
张永宇
CHEN Wen;FAN Yinzi;ZHANG Yongyu
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第10期34-53,共20页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“美国贸易政策不确定性对中国出口企业行为的影响机理与实证研究”(20AJL006)
关键词
技术性贸易措施
企业出口行为
双重差分
二元边际
Technical Barriers to Trade
Export Behavior of Enterprises
Difference-in-difference
Extensive and Intensive Margin of Exports
