摘要
自由贸易试验区(以下简称自贸区)是中国政府应对国际经济新格局的全局性战略举措,是新形势下深化开放、先行先试的"改革试验田"。本文使用2009—2017年间中国151个城市的面板数据,利用渐进式双重差分方法估计了自贸区的设立对外商直接投资、出口、要素价格水平的影响。研究结果表明:自贸区的设立提高了城市利用外商直接投资的整体水平,这是一种净福利的增长而非来自于其他城市向自贸区的转移;优惠便利政策赋予了自贸区城市"灯塔效应",推动了劳动力要素和资产要素价格水平的上涨;由于自贸区城市原有保税区的存在,政策红利已经在前期得到了释放,因此自贸区政策对所在城市出口贸易的短期影响并不显著,长期影响有待进一步观察;自贸区政策对当地固定资产投资并未产生"挤进"或"挤出"效应。
The Pilot Free Trade Zone(FTZ)is a strategic initiative undertaken by the Chinese government in response to the new international economic order.It is unprecedented and is used as a"reform test field"to deepen the flows of international trade and investment.However,the policy effects surrounding this initiative need to be quantified objectively.This paper used panel data of 151 cities in China between 2009 and 2017,and the staggered DID(Difference in Difference)method to estimate the policy’s impact on foreign direct investment(FDI),exports,and factor prices.The results show that the cities have improved their efficiency in their deployment of foreign capital in the FTZs.That means a net welfare gain rather than a transfer gain as a result of a transfer from other cities to the FTZs.At the same time,preferential and convenient policies have brought a"beacon effect"for cities that set up the FTZs,and also promoted the rise in the price levels of labour and asset factors.On the other hand,cities have already a bonded zone prior to the establishment of FTZs.As a result,the policy dividends are derived in the early stage.Therefore,the short-term impact of the FTZs on the export trade of the cities is not significant.However,its long-term impact needs to be further observed.Moreover,the FTZ has not produced a"crowding in"or"crowding out"effect on local fixed-asset investments.The conclusions of this paper are still valid after the placebo test and multi-angle robust analysis.
作者
刘杨
曲如晓
曾燕萍
LIU Yang;QU Ruxiao;ZENG Yanping
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第4期1-16,共16页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家自然科学基金地区科学基金项目“贸易开放与中国文化多样性变迁:理论、测度与文化地图”(71863032)
国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘一带一路’背景下中国文化海外传播对中国企业国际化的影响研究”(19ZDA068)
