摘要
消费金融长足发展有助于扩大内需,增强消费对经济发展的基础性作用,促进经济结构优化升级.伴随着业务规模扩张,相关违约事件频发,消费金融信用违约风险的监管与防范成为学术界和实务界共同关注的议题.数字化是运用数字科技实现业务重构和系统升级的过程,可以为消费金融业务提供数据支撑和技术支持.因此,探究数字化对消费金融信用违约风险的影响对推动金融行业高质量发展具有重要意义.将数字化与消费金融信用违约风险的概念整合在同一研究框架中,以2011年至2021年商业银行及其控股消费金融企业的个人消费信贷项目作为研究样本.通过使用固定效应模型,考察数字化对消费金融信用违约风险的经济影响,探究内部控制质量和经济政策不确定性的调节作用,并继续讨论这一影响效应的作用机制.研究结果表明,数字化对消费金融信用违约风险具有显著的抑制效应,尤其在企业内部控制质量更高和经济政策不确定性程度更低时,这种风险抑制作用被强化.该实证结果在变更被解释变量测量方式、替换解释变量测量方式、更换回归模型、调整样本范围等多种检验后依然稳健.机制检验进一步表明,数字化通过数据支撑和技术支持的双重渠道发挥对消费金融信用违约风险的抑制作用.研究结果丰富了数字化与消费金融信用违约风险的相关理论,为数字化助力商业银行风险控制提供了新的理论视角,对后续相关研究提供有益的参考.建议金融行业加快数字化转型的实践进程,以提升消费金融信用违约风险的管理能力,进一步促进消费金融业务的高质量发展.
The rapid development of consumer finance is conducive to expanding domestic demand,enhancing the basic role of consumption in economic development,and promoting the optimization and upgrading of the economic structure.With the expansion of business scale,related default events occur frequently,thus the supervision and prevention of credit default risk of consumer finance has become a common concern of academic and practical circles.Digitalization is the process of using digital technology to realize business restructuring and system upgrading,which can provide data support and technical support for consumer financial services.Therefore,it is of great significance to explore the impact of digitalization on the credit default risk of consumer finance to promote the high-quality development of the financial industry.The concepts of both digitalization and credit default risk of consumer finance are integrated into the joint research framework,with the personal consumer credit projects of commercial banks and their holding consumer finance companies,from 2011 to 2021,are taken as research samples in this paper.By using the fixed-effect model,the research examines the economic impact of digitalization on credit default risk of consumer finance,explores the moderating effect of internal control quality as well as economic policy uncertainty,and further discusses the mechanism of this influencing effect.It is shown in the results that digitalization has a significant inhibitory effect on credit default risk of consumer finance,especially when the quality of internal control is higher and the degree of economic policy uncertainty is lower,the risk inhibition effect is strengthened.The empirical results are still robust after a series of tests,such as changing the measurement method of independent variable,replacing the measurement method of dependent variable,changing the regression model,and adjusting the sample range.Moreover,the mechanism test represents that digitalization plays an inhibitory role in credit default risk of consumer finance through the influencing channels of both"data support"and"technical support".The research conclusions of this paper enrich the theories related to the digitalization as well as credit default risk of consumer finance.It represents innovative theoretical perspective in how the digitalization contributes to the risk management of commercial banks,adding useful reference to follow-up research in related areas.In addition,the findings suggest that the financial industry accelerate the practice process of digital transformation,to improve the management ability of credit default risk of consumer finance and further promote the high-quality development of consumer finance business.
作者
刘柏
郭书妍
潘梦梦
LIU Bai;GUO Shuyan;PAN Mengmeng(School of Business and Management,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China;School of Management and Economics,The Chinese University of Hong Kong(Shenzhen),Shenzhen 518172,China)
出处
《管理科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第6期33-44,共12页
Journal of Management Science
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(22YJA630047)
关键词
数字化
消费金融
信用违约风险
内部控制质量
经济政策不确定性
digitalization
consumer finance
credit default risk
internal control quality
economic policy uncertainty
